Author Archives: Amer Al Sabaileh

Politics Author: - March 5, 2017

What Arabs need from the coming Arab summit in Amman

The upcoming Arab Summit in Amman is an important moment for the region. With ongoing crises in Yemen, Libya, Syria and others, the real challenges appear to be within Arab countries themselves. 

One of the major issues is the return of Syria to the Arab League after more than 6 years of crisis in Syria. The political solution seems to be the only option so Arab countries should make the political play to bring Syria back in to play a key role in stabilizing and rebuilding Syria. Past positions of staying out of the solution is no longer an option.

Yemen and Libya are also important issues to be solved under the Arab umbrella. They also need a new way of thinking and repositioning of major Arab countries. Egypt, as the most active Arab country could pave the way for better Arab cooperation, but the Saudi position is still the major indicator of how efficient this Arab effort to solve the crises will be.

Arab countries must understand that the longer the crises endure the worse it is for them. With Saudi concerns about Iranian influence in the region, it is important to review past policies and understand how they may have given Iran more space to influence, especially in the places where crises appears, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and now Yemen.

The sectarian trends cannot be countered by more sectarian polices, Arab Shia in Lebanon, Iraq, Bahrain and Yemen are originally Arabs, but the policies adopted by some Arab countries have pushed many of them closer to Iran and away from Arab leaders. These are important issue to bear in mind when we think of the need to learn from the past and avoid its mistakes. It is important that Arab countries develop new policies that work to unify people rather than dividing them.

For Jordan this summit is critical, as it provides the opportunity to restore the political importance of Jordan as a country involved in these crises and building a new phase of Arab understanding will have positive impacts on Jordan. If this attempt fails then Jordan may find itself alone in facing three major issues, the growing economic crisis, the new phase of combatting terrorism and the risks of a failed peace process. On top of this Jordan could face the end of unity on a two state solution, and the inherent complexities of a one state solution, recognizing Israel as a Jewish state.

Arab states need to encounter that Israel’s current narrative which is based on a wider regional peace and rather than focusing on the pending peace process with Palestinians. 

The Trump Administration’s positions on the Middle East must also be addressed in the Arab Summit. This includes the future of the peace process and the potential of strong positions from the US in the region if we cannot find a path for ourselves.  Developing a new and effective Arab strategy for de-radicalization and fighting terrorism is one of the key issues that might help in restoring the Arab cooperation process.

There is not much to be optimistic about in the crises facing the Arab world, but we must find an Arab pathway from the grassroots through a new phase of Arab relations, which starts with credible and smart initiatives.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

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Politics Author: - March 1, 2017

قمة "عمان" العربية: اما البدء بترتيب البيت العربي او الاستعداد لاتساع مشهد الفوضى

 
من الصعب لاي شخص اليوم الحديث عن الواقع العربي من باب التفاؤل. فالازمات تتسع و حجم الخلاف العربي العربي اليوم يصل لدرجة تجعل الحديث عن رأب الصدع العربي امراً شبه مستحيل.
 بالرغم من حجم الاختلاف العربي و اتساع رقعة الازمات و الخلافات الا ان محاولة انجاح القمة العربية القادمة في عمان يجب ان تكون على رأس اجندة كثير من الدول. فبالرغم من اعتقاد الاغلبية  بان هذه القمة كغيرها من القمم لن تخرج عن اطار البروتكول و قد تنتهي بالتوصيات التي لايأخذ بها، الا ان مناخات المنطقة تشير ان هذه القمة تحمل تحديات كبيرة و ان فشلها قد يشكل لواقع اخطر لاحقاً. فكثير من القمم العربية التي فشلت فتحت ابواب الجحيم في المنطقة، مثل قمة فاس التي عرضت فيها مبادرة السلام العربية السعودية، لقمة عمان ١٩٨٧ و ما تبعها من اندلاع للانتفاضة في الضفة الغربية، لموتمر بغداد ١٩٩٠ و غزو الكويت لاحقاَ و حتى مؤتمر بيروت ٢٠٠٢ و تجديد مبادرة السلام العربية و انهاء ياسر عرفات سياسياً الخ.
قمة عمان تأتي في وقت يفرض التغيير في السياسة العالمية واقعاً جديداً، يمكن الاصطلاح على تسميته بمرحلة التسويات الكبرى و اعادة صياغة المنظومة الشرق اوسطية. ضمن هذه التحولات يجب على الدول العربية التفكير جدياً في اعادة ترتيب البيت العربي و بناء قواعد تشاركية جديدة، ليس من باب الترف بل من باب درء الخطر القادم الذي بات يتهدد الجميع دون استثناء. لهذا فانه من الضروري البدء بصياغة استراتيجية مشتركة لمكافحة الارهاب و العمل على احياء دور الدول العربية في ظل تحول لافت في شكل المشهد الشرق اوسطي الذي باتت تتقاسمه قوة اقليمية و دولية جديدة.
 ترتيب البيت العربي يبدأ عبر صيغة تفاهمية جديدة تعيد صياغة شكل الدور المصري و السعودي في ادارة الملفات العربية.
 اعادة قراءة الماضي تشير الى ان الدول العربية يجب ان تدرك ان الاولولية اليوم هي لانهاء الازمات المشتعلة و التي ادت في النهاية الى خلق مسارح تنافسية افسحت المجال للقوى المختلفة بالظهور و تجذير نفوذها في المنطقة. فعلى سبيل المثال، منذ ازمة لبنان والعراق و سوريا و اليمن تحتج بعض الدول العربية على النفوذ الايراني الجديد لكنها تقدم عبر سياساتها الفرصة لايران لتجذير نفوذها و تغيير واقع المنطقة، لا بل ان بعض السياسات العربية قد ادت في النهاية الى الدفع باطراف كثيرة من مكونات المجتمعات العربية باتجاه البحث عن دعم و تأييد خارج الولاءات العربية سواء في ايران او تركيا.
الحقيقة انه لايمكن لهذه القمة ان تنجح دون ان تطال مسائل رئيسية، اهمها مسألة عودة سوريا الى الجامعة العربية و انهاء معضلة خروج سوريا من الحضن العربي، كذلك مسألة اليمن و حالة الاستنزاف التي باتت تشكلها المسألة اليمنية، و لايمكن كذلك الا القمة مع مسألة السلام بجدية خصوصاً بعد التحول اللافت في طبيعة تعاطي الادارة الامريكية مع الملف و التفرد الكامل لنتينياهو في صياغة المشهد السياسي مدعوماً وفقاً لحديث نيتنياهو برغبته بانجاز سلام اقليمي مع دول عربية الامر الذي يجعل من ملف السلام مع الفلسطينيين ملفاً هامشياً. بالاضافة الى مسألة المباركة الامريكية او في احسن الاحوال عدم الاكتراث الامريكي لسقوط خيار حل الدولتين، لهذا من الطبيعي ان يسأل الجميع عن كيف شكل حل الدولة الواحدة و حدودها الجغرافية خصوصاً ان  تعزيز فكرة حل الدولة الواحدة يتزامن مع الاعتراف باسرائيل كدولة يهودية مما يعني ان اسرائيل بعيدة كل البعد عن حل الدولة الواحدة.
التحديات الكبيرة اليوم تحتم على الجميع التعامل مع ملفات المنطقة بمسؤولية كبيرة و الادارك ان ضياع هذه الفرصة قد يكون العامل المؤسس لاتساع رقعة الازمات و دخول دول جديدة الى نادي الاضطرابات.
د.عامر السبايلة
 
 
 

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Politics Author: - February 26, 2017

North of Jordan – From challenges to risks

The battles in the south of Syria are escalating with Hay’t Tahrir Al Sham clashing with the Syrian free army and other factions. This has also lead to groups affiliated with Daesh to progress on the ground such as the Khalid bin Waleed brigades march toward the Jordanian borders.

The threat is not new. In his famous interview with the BBC, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the Jordanian Armed Forces, Major General Mahmoud Friehat talked of the presence of the Khalid bin Waleed brigades close to the Jordanian border in the al Yarmouk area. Jordan has been closely watching their movements, but with the recent developments, they are becoming an increasing security risk.

While the escalation was expected, the Jordanian strategy is based on finding reliable partners inside Syria to combat the terrorist groups and contain the threat to its borders. Some analysts believe that the escalation is a reaction to the shift in the Jordanian position and the willingness to work with the Syrian army to re-open the borders.

However, the role Jordan is playing in working to protect the ceasefire on the ground in order to enhance stability is being challenged by some players in Syria. Jordan needs to develop efficient and effective strategies to counter the increasing risk. Putting Jordanian troops north of the border is not an option so effective alternatives are necessary.

Chaos in the border area will only increase pressure on Jordan. We cannot afford for terrorist groups to set up a logistics base in the border regions, or the establishment of a new power base. This would only lead to more instability, and in the long run would drain Jordan’s resources, increase pressure on the security systems and risk mistakes.

Jordan should adopt a two-track strategy. Firstly, destroying these terrorist groups should be the primary objective of the international coalition. Secondly, Jordan should enhance its cooperation with Russian forces.

In a time of serious crisis, political limitations should be minimized. The stabilization of southern Syria is both a military and political issue, so Jordan should adopt a more clear and open strategy toward Syria and the Russian coalition.

Meanwhile, this escalation should be at the top of the agenda of the coming Arab Summit, as the potential impacts will be felt across the region. Politically, Arab countries should consider changing aggressive policies that keep the crisis going in the region.

Fighting terrorism seems to be the priority for all countries in the region, and yet there does not appear to be a common strategy. As such, from a purely Jordanian perspective, we must adopt more flexible policies toward all the protagonists in Syria or order to manage the risk and reduce the threat.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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Politics Author: - February 19, 2017

Challenges from southern Syria

The Jordanian efforts in implementing the ceasefire in southern Syria are being challenged by several threats, predominately from the growing Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham “Organization for the Liberation of the Levant”.

Last week a car bomb in al Yadouda in southern Syria left dozens of dead and injured. Some sources reported that a Jordanian terrorist known as “Abu Rayyan Al Ma’ani” conducted the suicide attack in in the province of Dara’a near the Jordanian border.

The car bomb attack was one of several launched by terrorist groups aiming to escalate the situation in the south of the country and are creating chaos on Syria’s southern borders. This comes at a time when Jordan is increasing its efforts to stabilize the border regions by expanding the ceasefire and encouraging groups to join the political process.

Jordan’s new role is likely to upset some of the groups in Syria as well as some countries in the region. Particularly since Russia has praised Jordan’s action in stabilizing the area and the mutual coordination in fighting terrorism.

While many analysts have been calling for Jordan to play this role for a while now, it is not too late to reconsider options according to the new developments.

For Jordan’s national security, it is imperative to have a reliable partner on the Syrian side to coordinate security issues. After the battle of Aleppo there are not many options for Jordan but we should be looking to open channels with the main protagonists in Syria, in this case Russia and the Syrian Army.

With a solid relationship of cooperation, Jordan can achieve strategic gains, however it could also put us in open confrontation with the terrorist groups operating in Syria and its cells everywhere. Despite this, Jordan’s objective must be long term, and with a focus on future strategic interest, make use of its political maneuvers to secure its interests.

Jordan will not be alone in this fight, but taking an active role with partners in dealing with the implications of the battle for the south of Syria and the liberation of Raqqa will put us in a better position to plan and have a strong hand in solving the refugee issues. This will be extremely important, given some of the issues in the Rukban refugee camps and the potential threat they pose to Jordanian national security.

Jordan’s new position will increase the chances of reopening the Jordanian –Syrian border, which would address many of the economic problems related to commercial and economic ties between the two countries going forward. By playing a major positive role in the south of Syria, Jordan could position itself well in rebuilding Syria that could lead to a revival for the Jordanian economy.

In order to be more credible and succeed in achieving these goals, Jordan should start a process of change to be more credible on all levels.

Dr. Amer AL Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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Politics Author: - February 12, 2017

Jordan’s new position on Syria

There has been much talk of a change in Jordan’s position on the crisis in Syria. While there are multiple factors urging a shift in strategy, the national security implications of confrontations in the south of Syria following the battle of Aleppo are the most pointed.

The expected military escalation in Syria is quite different to anything seen previously in the crisis and the only priority now is to eliminate ISIS and other terrorist groups. This means the global priority is fully aligned with Jordan’s national security. The threat of escalation on Jordan’s northern borders remain, especially given then potential for a large scale battle in Daraa’ and later in Raqqa, so there are bound to be implications for Jordan’s internal security.

Recently, Jordan participated in the second round meetings in Astana demonstrating that Amman is engaging in a key role in the Syrian crisis. This follows King Abdullah II’s visit to Moscow to meet with President Putin. Jordan’s Air Force has also been bombing ISIS positions in southern Syria, further demonstrating a shift in strategy.

The official line on these bombings was that the decision was taken independently of the activities of the international coalition in Syria, suggesting that it must have been coordinated with Russian or Syrian counterparts.

Jordan’s national security must be the major factor in determining its policies in Syria and finding reliable partners in the fight against Daesh and the terrorist groups on the ground. It is imperative that Jordan plays an integral role in protecting the cease-fire agreement in southern Syria by putting pressure on Syrian opposition groups to join the political settlement and ensure the success of the Astana agreements. 

Jordan’s role in the south is similar to Turkey’s in the north. The objective is a successful peace agreement in Syria to secure its strategic interests, both in terms of security and economically. Reopening the border with a stable Syria with position Jordan as a key player in rebuilding the country, resettling refugees in safe areas and removing the economic pressures.

Dr. Amer Al  Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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Politics Author: - February 5, 2017

Jordan: Political choices ahead

It seems unlikely that 2017 will be the year that the ongoing crises in the Middle East will be resolved. While the Syrian crisis does appear to have improved, a solution is still going to be a bit difficult.

The first priority for all protagonists in the region this year is the likely ramp up of the fight against terrorists, the elimination of ISIS, and preparing for the aftershocks of a final battle with ISIS might bring. There will likely still be random attacks and the inevitable rise of a successor to ISIS.

All of this will hinge on the new US Administration’s strategy in the fight against ISIS and how it will manage the restoration of peace and political stability. Jordan must plot a course through all of this. Jordan must be a key player in the elimination of terrorist groups in Syria and Iraq, as it is inextricably linked to its internal and border security on both fronts.

In addition to this, Jordan faces several political challenges, from the pending peace process to dealing with the implications of moving the US Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, especially given the Hashemite custody over the Al Aqsa mosque.

These challenges must be met while restoring good relations with Iraq and Syria, and improving relations with important regional players such as Iran and Turkey. An open door policy with all key powers in the region is imperative in order to diversify Jordan’s strategic options by creating common interests. Jordan must take advantage of the geopolitics to improve its political and economic situation.

The upcoming Arab Summit in Amman is a risk given the level of conflict and dispute among Arabs over so many issues. For the strategic interest of Jordan, the summit needs to launch some serious initiatives to put an end to the continuous crisis in Syria, Yemen and Libya. Failure to establish a vision to rebuild relations amongst the Arab nations will be a burden and will not result in any strategic gain for Jordan.

While there are many challenges facing Jordan regionally and internationally, the greatest challenge is to manage the growing economic discontent amongst Jordanians. Serious structural reform and transformation is needed in order to be in the best position to leverage the security and political challenges and opportunities.

Dr. Amer al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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Politics Author: - January 30, 2017

Jordan’s security and political cooperation with Russia

Ever since the first day of the double “Russian-Chinese” veto on Syria in 2012, it has been palpable that Moscow’s intervention in the Syrian crisis was not temporarily. However, for some countries, the mistake was to view this involvement as a temporary intervention, where many people relied on a methodology of comparing previous Russian (and formerly USSR) policies in the region to apply it on the current events and reach the conclusion of Russia’s inability in imposing itself and its continued presence in the region.

Actually any farsighted reading clearly indicates that Syria is a major turning point in the nature of the international dealing with crisis and that it will have a major role in the re-drafting of international standpoints.

As for the Jordanian- Russian relationship, Jordan is currently compelled to communicate with Moscow. Although this step has been previously classified as a “political choice” today it has become an inevitable necessity. This visit has to overcome any previous positions and push Jordan to a point where the visits are transformed into practical steps in reality.

The Jordanian borders might be facing an impending confrontation resulting from the coming battles to the southern Syrian borders, which means that Jordan should look for military and security collaboration and communication with the Syrian side, as Jordan should be ready to face the consequences resulting from the southern Syrian battles or the battle to liberate Raqqa.   

King Abdullah’s visit to Moscow is not the first but the timing of this visit could make it the most fundamental. Jordan is compelled to contemplate its political choices and rebuild its alliances prioritizing the Jordanian national interest.

Today, the phase of rebuilding alliances and considering diversifying the choices is no longer prohibited. Actually, it is becoming an urgent need that cannot be overlooked or even ignored. For today, Moscow is the most conspicuous player in the fight against terrorism in the region. It is also the entryway to the regional settlement point, as well as the fact that it is becoming heavily involved in the peace process. This means that Moscow has become a compulsory access point for Jordan on both security and political scales.

Re-adapting the Jordanian position regarding the Syrian crisis should not be limited to slogans but to action. Jordan should find its way out of the gray zone, taking clear positions to re engage with the Syrian government. This was also the message sent by the chairman of Jordan joint chiefs-of-staff Mahmoud Freihat in his last BBC interview when he said that Jordan cannot open Nassib’s borders with Syria unless it goes back under the Syrian government control.


Changing Jordanian politics means that Jordan is obliged to adopt new policies and embrace a contemporary vision, which means that Jordan is forced to make drastic changes in the form and nature of dealing with the regional crisis.

Jordan’s visit to Moscow may bear many significant implications in its symbolism, but it cannot be transformed into progressive outcomes if factual steps do not accompany these advances on the ground that really declares the commencement of a new phase.

Dealing with Moscow is no longer an option, but has become a reality that cannot be overlooked or even ignored for all Middle Eastern countries.

Dr.Amer Al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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Politics Author: - January 25, 2017

الاردن و روسيا: شراكة اجبارية في البعدين الامني و السياسي

* التعاطي مع موسكو لم يعد خياراً بل اصبح واقعاً لا يمكن اغفاله بالنسبة لكافة دول الشرق الاوسط.

* السياسة الامريكية وضعت حلفاء واشنطن في موقف لا يحسدون عليه مما يجعل اطراف المحور الامريكي مضطرين للبحث عن خيارات و تحالفات جديدة مبنية على مصالح استراتيجية جديدة.

منذ اليوم الاول للفيتو المزدوج “الروسي الصيني” بشأن سوريا في العام ٢٠١٢   واضحاً ان دخول موسكو على خط الازمة السورية لم يكن دخولاً عبثياً او مؤقتاً.

بالنسبة لبعض الدول، كان من الطبيعي النظر الى هذا التدخل على انه تدخل مؤقت، حيث اعتمد الكثيرون على منهجية مقارنة سياسات روسيا او الاتحاد السوفياتي السابقة في المنطقة لاسقاطها على الحاضر و الوصول الى استنتاج مفاده ان روسيا غير قادرة على فرض نفسها و استمرار تواجدها في المنطقة. لا بل ان جلسات متعددة  شارك فيها سياسيون و عسكريون شهدت تكراراً لواحدة من النظريات الاكثر سطحية، مفادها ان روسيا تحاول رفع سعر تعويضاتها للتخلي عن سوريا.

الحقيقة ان اي قراءة بعيدة النظر تشير بوضوح ان سوريا هي نقطة التحول الرئيسي في طبيعة التعاطي الدولي مع هذه الازمة و التي سيكون لها الدور الاكبر في اعادة صياغة المواقف الدولية.

لسنا هنا في معرض السرد التفصيلي لمحطات الازمة السورية و انعكاساتها، لكن لابد من الاشارة ان الدخول الروسي الى سوريا عبر محطتين، الاولى عبرالبوابة الدبلوماسية في رعاية اتفاق تسليم الاسلحة الكيماوية،اما الثانية فهي محطة الدخول العسكري المباشر.

مع بداية المرحلة الثانية كان من الطبيعي ان تجد موسكو نفسها منخرطة في كافة ملفات المنطقة من مكافحة الارهاب الى عملية السلام.

 اما بالنسبة للعلاقة الاردنية الروسية، فالاردن يجد نفسه مضطراً اليوم للتواصل مع موسكو، و ان كانت هذه الخطوة تصنف سابقاً على انها “خيار سياسي” الا انها اليوم اصبحت ضرورة لا مفر عنها. لكن لابد لهذه الزيارة ان تتجاوز عقبات الزيارات السابقة و تتنقل بالاردن الى نقطة ترجمة الزيارة الى خطوات عملية على الارض.

فالحدود الاردنية قد تكون على موعد مع مواجهة قادمة ناتجة عن انتقال المعارك الى جبهة سوريا الجنوبية الامر الذي يعني ان الاردن معني بالتنسيق و التواصل العسكري الامني مع الداخل السوري و الاستعداد كذلك لمواجهة التداعيات الناتجة عن معركة الجنوب السوري او معركة تحرير الرقة.

زيارة الملك عبدالله الى موسكو هي ليست الزيارة الاولى لكن يمكن ان تكون الاهم بالنسبة للتوقيت. الاردن المضطر للتفكير في خياراته السياسية واعادة بناء  تحالفاته و هو معني اليوم بالتعاطي مع التحولات الاخيرة التي طرأت  على السياسة الدولية من باب تغليب المصلحة الاردنية على اي شيء آخر.

مرحلة اعادة صياغة التحالفات و التفكير بتنويع الخيارات لم تعد اليوم مسألة يحظر التفكير بها -وفقاً لذهنية كثير من الساسة الاردنيين المتمركزين في مراكز صنع القرار- بل اصبحت حاجة ملحة لا يمكن اغفالها. فموسكو اليوم هي اللاعب الابرز في مكافحة الارهاب في المنطقة و هي اليوم بوابة العبور الى نقطة التسوية الاقليمية واصبحت منخرطة بشكل كبير في ملف عملية السلام، مما يعني ان موسكو باتت ممراً اجبارياً للاردن على الصعيدين الامني و السياسي.

اعادة التكيف مع مسارات الحل في سوريا و استيعاب التغير الذي طرأ على سياسات كافة الدول يجب ان يدفع الاردن اليوم للبحث عن مخرج حقيقي و اللحاق بركب التحولات التي بدأت تعيد ترتيب شكل المنطقة.

التغيير في السياسة الاردنية يعني ان الاردن مضطر لانتهاج سياسة جديدة و تبني رؤية حديثة مما يعني ان الاردن مضطر لاجراء تغييرات جذرية في شكل و طبيعة تعاطيه مع ملفات ازمات المنطقة.

الزيارة الاردنية لموسكو قد تحمل في رمزيتها معاني و مضامين كبيرة الا انها لا يمكن ان تتحول الي نتائج ايجابية ان لم ترافق هذه التحركات خطوات حقيقية على الارض تعلن بدء مرحلة جديدة، عندها يمكن التفكير بان الاردن بدأ فعلياً مرحلة الانتقال الفعلي لمرحلة تنويع الخيارات. 

د.عامر السبايلة

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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Politics Author: - January 22, 2017

Reshuffling governments a sign of political instability

Jordan is well known for changes and reshuffles at the highest levels of government. While the previous Prime Minister Abdullah Ensour held office for more than three years, he had over 70 ministers on his team during that time. The current Prime Minister Hani Al-Mulki is continuing that legacy of instability announcing his second reshuffle after less than seven months in office.

Many believe that the main challenge for Jordan is economic reforms to address the serious issues in the economy, and very little has been achieved on this. Jordan also faces very serious problems with radicalization, general security and coordination of the bureaucracy. Jordan also faces the challenge of restoring relations with neighboring countries including Syria and Iraq, as well as reconnecting with regional players such as Iran and Turkey. Without a clear strategy and professional operators to implement, these issues will never be addressed.

The failure to deliver concrete progress in addressing the economy or deradicalization is in part driven by the lack of stability in key ministries such as the Ministry of Culture, Ministry of Higher Education and the Ministry of Youth. Without stability or any progress in tackling the key issues, this government is likely to be another that treads water and achieves nothing.

Many observers believe that Mulki, much like many of his predecessors, is not a leader or a team player. Any reshuffle must be based on national interests with a strategic vision to address the key issues that are facing the country.

Whatever the real reasons behind the reshuffle, this kind of power politics will always have a negative impact on both citizens and state. It adds tension to the already difficult political climate and gives the impression that government is completely outdated and unable to address the concerns of the Jordanian public.

What Jordan needs today is a government that can bring tangible changes to the lives of the people at all levels of service delivery, economic reform and to communicate the policies and achievements. The risks of such a political attitude is the disillusionment of Jordanians who are more likely to consider not only that change is impossible but also that attempts to change are futile.

The most serious problem is the continuous erosion of confidence that current or future governments are capable of addressing internal or regional challenges.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem that this reshuffle has changed anything as far as government policy is concerned. It is unlikely to last if the economic situation does not change and the impacts of regional terrorism continue to escalate. The most likely outcome is ongoing change and instability with no real outcomes for the people or the country.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

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Politics Author: - January 15, 2017

Are we ready for the new waves of Terrorism?

New regional waves of terrorism are targeting different countries in the region, mostly Turkey. After the call of the leader of ISIS ‘Al Baghdadi’ to attack Turkey, it is obvious that Turkey is becoming the chief target of the terrorist organization. The night club operation in Turkey represents new challenges in encountering terrorism; the ability of the terrorist to eliminate the security personnel even the police;  carry-out the operation, and escape the scene in a new style shows that this operation can be viewed as an “intelligence operation”. This recent methodology annotates an escalation in the level of sophistication of ISIS’s “traditional operations” but it also shows that the organization is penetrating the security system and social textile of Turkey; as it would be impossible for any terrorist to execute such an operation, escape the scene and hide within the same country without back-up and support from local protagonists.

Nonetheless, it is important to notice that the regression of ISIS’s organization in Syria and Iraq, along with the recent shifts following the battle of Aleppo causes not just Turkey, but also Jordan to face series of challenges and dangers.

First, the relocation of fighters from one front to other fronts intensifies the possibilities of individual operations and increases the organization’s desire to create new hot spots.

Second, Jordan’s most critical challenge is the rout of the battles in Syria after Aleppo, in which its compass might point towards the Syrian Southern border, placing increasing pressure on the Jordanian border and raising the danger ratio of repeated attacks. In this case, repeated attempts that aim at striking the national security and creating an atmosphere of internal disputes will take place; the organization’s subjects seek to exploit and employ it to the best of their interests.

Third, one of the prominent dangers of the next phase is characterized by the continuous regeneration of fighter cells and the activation of dormant cells that have been operating mutely during the past years, and have been able to build networks of allies in the areas in which they are located.

Fourth, the arrival of these cells to the “individual working” phase; they will be isolated due to the fall of the central order of the organization. These cells might be seeking to apply individual actions that depend on the surprise element, and usually aim at causing the most damage with minimal costs. This means uncomplicated operations such as; shooting at a security officer, or striking a crowded area of civilians using primitive techniques.

The increasing pressure on the fighters in Syria, and the Turkish borders being closed after Erdogan’s political shift might push the fighters into targeting new areas and finding exit routes from which they can use in order to escape this state of pressure.

Thus, the challenges Jordan is facing are enormous. The alteration from having to deal with direct threats means that Jordan has moved into the open and direct confrontation stage with these organizations. That is why Jordan has to change the framework and the system in which it deals with these organizations. The graphic organizer of recent assaults that targeted Jordan indicates obvious increase in the configuration of the operations, their method and objectives but still the target, so far, is the security system not the civilians. This means that they should be dealt with in a strictly firm manner and in a method that foresees the coming confrontations in order to avoid any further dangerous and aggressive future threats. 

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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