Il governo yemenita ha acconsentito di prendere parte a una nuova fase di colloqui per giungere alla pace nel paese. Il presidente yemenita Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi è sempre più…
The degenerating presence of ISIS on the Syrian and Iraqi soil forces the group to adopt a new strategy that aims to compensate its losses, offers the impression that it still retains its strength, and that it is still able to hit everywhere. Moreover, it is vital for the group to seek creating new climates that form attraction points for its members departing Syria and Iraq.
The logical interpretation of the incidents in the city of Karak indicates the possibility of these operations being linked to a central decision, which means that the cell might not be an individual one. It might be a cell that works according to group’s methodology and strategy.
This is what the shape of the operation obviously shows, as well as the data and logistics that have been revealed. The location of the operation could also confirm this hypothesis. For instance, if we agreed that the security forces are the primary targets of this operation this explains the group’s desire to strike more than one bird with one stone by attacking the security forces as well as striking the tourist attraction. This is usually what happens in order to achieve many objectives such as:
1- A moral blow to the state security system by displaying its inability to protect its tourist attractions.
2- Taking advantage of the rapid speed in which news spreads through media in case of an assault on a historical landmark and tourist attraction.
3- The possibility of foreign tourists being present in these areas, which gives the assault a global dimension.
4- These assaults also aim at inflicting economic blow on the country that is dependent on tourism as its means of income. It also creates atmosphere of angry citizens of the area, who are harmed by the dearth of tourism, or the poor economic situation that accompanies such circumstances so that they can exploit it later on in the future.
Henceforth, the strategy that entails striking tourist areas is found to be the most effective and successful policy for many groups today.
The regression of ISIS’s organization in Syria and Iraq, along with the recent shifts following the battle of Aleppo causes Jordan to face series of challenges and dangers:
First, the relocation of fighters from one front to other fronts intensifies the possibilities of individual operations and increases the organization’s desire to create new hot spots.
Second, Jordan’s most critical challenge is the path of the battles in Syria after Aleppo, in which its compass might point towards the Syrian Southern border, placing increasing pressure on the Jordanian border and raising the danger ratio of repeated attacks. In this case, repeated attempts that aim at striking the national security and creating an atmosphere of internal disputes will take place; the
organization’s subjects seek to exploit and employ it to the best of their interests.
Third, one of the prominent dangers of the next phase is characterized by the continuous regeneration of fighter cells and the activation of dormant cells that have been operating silently during the past years, and have been able to build networks of allies in the areas in which they are located.
Fourth, the arrival of these cells to the “individual working” phase; they will be isolated since the fall of the central order of the organization. These cells might be seeking to apply individual actions that depend on the surprise element, and usually aim at causing the most damage with minimal costs. This means uncomplicated operations such as; shooting at a security officer, or striking a crowded area of civilians using primitive techniques.
The increasing pressure on the fighters in Syria, and the Turkish borders being closed might push the fighters into targeting new areas and finding exit routes from which they can use in order to escape this state of pressure.
Thus, the challenges Jordan is facing are enormous. The alteration from having to deal with direct threats means that Jordan has moved into the open and direct confrontation stage with these organizations. That is why Jordan has to change the framework and the system in which it deals with these organizations. The graphic organizer of recent assaults that targeted Jordan indicates obvious increase in the configuration of the operations, their method and objectives. This means that they should be dealt with in a strictly firm way and in a way that foresees the coming confrontations in order to avoid any further dangerous and aggressive future threats.
Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh
لا يمكن تقديم اي قراءة امنية للاحداث الارهابية الاخيرة في مدينة الكرك بعيداً عن سياق الحوادث السابقة التي شهدها الاردن مؤخراً. كذلك لا يمكن استثناء البعد الاقليمي و انعكاساته على ما يجري اليوم على الساحة الاردنية، من الاوضاع العسكرية في سوريا و العراق الى التحولات السياسية في مواقف بعض الدول.
ان انحسار تواجد تنظيم داعش على الارض السورية و العراقية يدفع –بلاشك- بالتنظيم لانتهاج استراتيجية جديدة تعمل على تعويض الخسائر و تعطي الانطباع بأن التنظيم يحتفظ بقوته و مازال قادراً على الضرب في كل مكان. بالتزامن مع ذلك، لابد ان يسعى التنظيم لخلق مناخات جديدة تشكل نقطة جذب لعناصره الخارجة من سوريا و العراق.
القراءة المنطقية لاحداث الكرك تشير الى احتمالية ارتباط هذه العملية بقرار مركزي، اي ان الخلية من الممكن الا تكون خلية فردية بل خلية تعمل وفقاً لمنهجية و استراتيجية التنظيم، هذا ما توضحه شكل العملية و حيثياتها و ما تم الكشف عنه من معطيات و لوجستيات. مكان العملية يمكن ان يؤكد هذه النظرية أيضاً، فلو اتفقنا ان قوات الامن هي المستهدف الرئيسي من هذه العملية الا انها توضح رغبة التنظيم بضرب أكثر من عصفور بحجر واحد، اي ضرب اجهزة الامن و ضرب الاماكن السياحية ايضاً، وذلك عادة ما يتم لتحقيق عدة أهداف اهمها :
١ الضربة المعنوية للاجهزة الامنية و الدولة باظهار عدم قدرتها على حماية اماكنها السياحية.
٢ استغلال سرعة انتشار الخبر في وسائل الاعلام في حال تم الاعتداء على معلم تاريخي و سياحي.
٣ احتمال تواجد السياح الاجانب في هذه الاماكن مما يعطي الاعتداء بعداً عالمياً.
٤ توجه هذه الاعتداءات ضربة اقتصادية ايضاً للدولة المستهدفة المعتمدة في اقتصاداتها على الدخل القادم من السياحة و تخلق مناخات غاضبة من ابناء المنطقة المتضررين من انقطاع السياحة او من الاوضاع الاقتصادية السيئة التي تواكب مثل هذه الظروف بحيث يمكن استغلالها مستقبلاً.
لهذا فان استراتيجية ضرب الاماكن السياحية هي استراتيجية تجد التنظيمات فيها اليوم الاستراتيجية الاكثر فعاليةً و نجاحاً.
ان انحسار تنظيم داعش في سوريا و العراق و التحولات الاخيرة بعد معركة حلب تضع الاردن في مواجهة سلسلة من التحديات و الاخطار:
اولاً: انتقال المقاتلين من هذه الجبهات باتجاه جبهات أخرى مما يعني ارتفاع احتماليات تنفيذ عمليات فردية و ازدياد الرغبة لدى التنظيم بخلق نقاط ساخنة جديدة.
ثانياً: التحدي الاهم للاردن هو مسار المعارك في سوريا بعد حلب و الذي قد تشير بوصلته الى الجبهة الجنوبية لسوريا مما يضع ضغطاً متزايداً على الحدود الاردنية و يرفع منسوب خطر استهدافها المتكرر. في هذه الحالة تتكرر عادة محاولات ضرب السلم الاهلي و خلق مناخات للنزاعات الداخلية يسعى عناصر التنظيم لاستغلالها و توظيفها لمصلحتهم.
ثالثاً: من الاخطار البارزة في المرحلة القادمة تمثله عملية “التفريخ” المستمر للخلايا المقاتلة و تفعيل الخلايا النائمة التي كانت تعمل بصمت على مدار السنوات الماضية و استطاعت ان تبني شبكات من المتعاونين معها في المناطق التي تتواجد بها.
رابعاً: وصول هذه الخلايا الى مرحلة العمل الفردي، اي ان تصبح بلا رأس نظراً لتعذر تطبيق النظام المركزي و انتظار تلقي الاوامر يمكن ان تسعى هذه الخلايا للتحرك الفردي و الذي يعتمد على عامل المفاجئة و عادة ما يهدف الى الحاق اكبر ضرر ممكن بأقل التكاليف اي عمليات غير معقدة، كاطلاق الرصاص على رجال الامن او ضرب التجمعات المدنية باساليب بدائية.
ان زيادة الضغط على المقاتلين في سوريا و اغلاق الحدود التركية قد يدفع بهؤلاء للسعي لاستهداف اماكن جديدة و البحث عن خاصرة رخوة يمكن استغلالها للهروب من حالة الضغط هذه.
لهذا فان التحديات امام الاردن هي تحديات كبيرة فالانتقال للتعاطي مع التهديدات المباشرة يعني ان الاردن انتقل الى مرحلة المواجهة المفتوحة و المباشرة مع هذه التنظيمات، لهذا فان الاردن مضطر لتغيير نمط و شكل التعامل مع هذه التنظيمات. فالمنحنى البياني للعمليات التي استهدفت الاردن تشير الى تصاعد واضح في نمط العمليات و شكلها و اهدافها مما يعني ضرورة التعامل معها بحزم شديد و باسلوب نوعي يستبق المواجهات القادمة لتفادي اي تهديدات مستقبلية أكثر خطورةً و عنفاً.
The battle of Aleppo is one of the most important developments to see an end to the Syrian crisis, even though it won’t be the last battle. The Syrian regime’s win in Aleppo might, logically, push the fight against the terrorists to the south.
According to the experts the battle of Aleppo is a major step for the Syrian regime in regaining control of the country. In the absence of a clear vision from America, Russia with its allies have seized the moment to recapture Aleppo. Russia made a deal with Turkey to limit its involvement and support for the rebels in Aleppo. With the Turkish borders closed, the advantage shifted.
Recapturing Aleppo doesn’t give the Syrian Army full control over Syrian territory but it refocuses the conflict into a single dimension, fighting terrorism. A Trump White House will no doubt support this, as the President-elect has frequently expressed that his priority in Syria is to fight terrorism, and not political change. With the potential for new leaders in France and other European countries later next year, we may see more support for a similarly single-minded focus in Syria.
The battle of Aleppo will push the fight down to the south of the country. While Turkey was engaged in the north due to the proximity to its borders, Jordan may be forced to take a similar level of engagement as the fight pushes into the south. The impacts that this battle on the Jordanian borders will certainly decide level of the Jordanian engagement in such battle.
Jordan is closely monitoring the developments on that front. On military level, the Jordanian army is -at the same time- applying intensive border surveillance activities and setting the rules of engagement for any possible attack on Jordanian borders.
Jordan faces many challenges and threats with a lot of border territory with ISIS controlled areas in the Jordan-Syria-Iraq triangle. During the battle in Mosul there were reports of ISIS fighters close to the Jordanian border and any attempt to recapture Palmyra by ISIS will also put pressure on Jordan. Moreover, the recapturing of the city of Palmyra by ISIS would put more pressure on Jordan. Especially on the area of Iraqi, Syrian Jordanian shared borders.
The challenges for Jordan are only likely to increase and become more difficult to address. They will require a new way of dealing with threats, not just militarily and logistically but also politically. Jordan needs strong relationships with the Iraqi and Syrian counterparts as well as the capacity to build strong alliances with countries that can help Jordan in taking actions on the ground to confront these threats.
Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh
Once again in the last weeks we have seen reports of Israeli jet fighters attacking a Hezbollah convoy west of Damascus. These ongoing attacks of Hezbollah fighters, leaders and convoys are part of an escalation between Israel and Hezbollah that could soon lead to open confrontation. There are three factors that encourage Israel to seriously consider such a move.
The first is related to the presence of Hezbollah in Syria, and its proximity to the Golan Heights. According to many experts Hezbollah’s financial and human resources were seriously drained and it’s popularity on the decline within Lebanon and abroad. This could be an opportunity for Israel to attack Hezbollah directly after the war in Syria.
The second factor that would be of concern to Israel is the experience that Hezbollah’s fighters have gained in Syria. Cooperation with various militias and the development of new fighting techniques and tactics from having a wide network inside Syria and across the region could see Hezbollah implement them against Israel as their attention turns back to their traditional foe.
The third factor relates to the use of new technology and techniques in spying that Hezbollah has been using. There have been multiple incidents of drones crossing into Israeli air space and evading Israeli defenses taking pictures and collecting intelligence on Israeli troops and installations. This is a new threat to Israel and would be of great concern.
With these indicators suggesting an increasing probability of a confrontation, it begs the question as to what Hezbollah has prepared. We know that Hezbollah has new technology and techniques, but perhaps they are also thinking that offense is the best form of defense. Further, they may consider that surprise would be to their advantage, which means we could see a confrontation on Israeli soil.
Hezbollah would also be preparing itself for a solution to the crisis in Syria where they are no longer able to use it as a logistic, political and financial base, as they have in the past. The same would also apply to Iran, which is working to keep deals with the international community.
The result of this is that Hezbollah will not have the same level of backing as it has in the past. We are seeing a longer term change of Hezbollah’s political strategy as they have managed to facilitate the deal that saw their ally General Michael Aoun become the president of Lebanon, which may also see them address their illegal status of being a state within a state.
Despite all of these indicators, the key factor of whether we see a confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel or a regional settlement is likely to be determined by the new protagonist in the region, in Russia.
Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh
Recently, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) launched: “the Arab Human Development Report (AHDR) 2016: Youth and the Prospects for Human Development in a Changing Reality.” The report highlights shocking facts and statistics regarding many aspects of the status of youth and the development process in the Arab world. It forecasts the risk of increasing chaos across Arab countries in the coming years.
In the Arab world, the population between the ages of 15 and 29 years is currently at 105 million and unemployment, poverty and marginalization of this population is growing. These and many other issues need to be considered and addressed by Arab governments. The report details growing feelings of inequality and frustration among youth as a result of high unemployment rates and a lack of political engagement. These are historic problems for the Arab world but we already know that increased marginalization and isolation can lead to violence and increased security threats and conflict.
Arabs represent 5% of the global population and are involved in more than 45% of terrorist acts. Arabs also make up a high percentage of the world’s refugee population. The report highlights the illegal immigration of frustrated and desperate people, but does not mention that educated and enlightened Arabs began leaving the region many years ago as they felt there is no place for them in their own countries. Arab immigration can be categorized as those who choose to leave and those who are forced.
The failure to build national identities, and the reliance on religious and tribal identity is one of the major reasons behind these issues in the Arab world. The report indicates that increasingly, Arab youth identify themselves more with their religion, sect or tribe than by their country. In 2002, five Arab states were mired in conflict and today there are 11. By 2020, the report predicts that almost three out of four Arabs could be “living in countries vulnerable to conflict”.
The terrifying facts in this report should urge all Arab governments to adopt effective strategies based on investing in the human-building process. The investment in cultural revolution and in providing people with decent services to give them the chance to build their own future. That is the key to effective change. Investments must be made in everything from culture to agriculture and target concrete issues that can change people’s lives.
For comparison, the report included the level of spending amongst Arab governments on security and foreign arms purchases. It is important to look at various police states that spent billions on security and the military, and still ended up a theater for chaos. Arab Governments should invest in its citizens and culture. The more these governments succeed in engaging their citizens in the political and development process, the safer they will be. The key is to engage their citizens as protagonists for positive change, rather than antagonists to a properly functioning and safe society.
Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh