Author Archives: Amer Al Sabaileh

Politics Author: - January 8, 2017

Advanced ISIS Strategy Looming New Threats



The remarkable shift in the method of the terrorist operation carried-out by ISIS in Istanbul, especially from the technical and tactical perspective, indicates ISIS’s shift in adopting a more complicated advanced approach, which could be classified as one of the intelligence operation in the form and the implementation process; particularly, in the assailant’s ability to carry – out the attack during vital timing: “New Year’s Eve celebrations” in spite of the warnings that had been released and the security measures that had been assumed in order to confront such danger. The most dangerous aspect, which marks an unprecedented occurrence, is that the attacker did not pursue a previous approach in his attack like blasting himself, or remaining on sight fighting until killed. On the contrary, he was able to flee the scene and go into hiding to this day.     
This data presented opens the door wide open for questions, specifically regarding the security challenges facing and will face Turkey, as well as other countries in the future. Particularly since the hypothesis of implementing an operation of this magnitude, in a well-known tourist attraction despite taking all security measures, indicates a highly penetrative ability of both security and community system. The ability of a person to carry-out such an operation is a sign that significantly indicates the presence of catalysts and internal incubators working to facilitate all phases of the operation: access, mission accomplished by shooting down the target, withdrawal and disappearance.      

The strike facing Turkey today occurs at a time when Turkey is reformulating its political positions; embarking on an era of transformations that initially started to appear by ending the battle of Aleppo and moving into the truce phase in Syria, and Turkey’s role in bringing many parties to the negotiation table.   

The successive security strikes also occur at a time when Turkey’s security system is going through a restructuring phase, after the futile military coup attempt, intensifying the complexity of Turkey’s mission and its ability to counter terrorism; apart from the political challenges and negative climates formed by the Turkish policy in recent years, which resulted in increased number of enemies and fewer friends and allies.

Turkey has been trying very hard to recover from the dearth of tourism that started with the Russian fighter Jet crash and the absence of Russian tourist presence, as well as the destructive fallouts due to a number of terrorist attacks targeting European tourists, and then the bombing of Istanbul’s airport. All these were situations reinforcing a hiatus in tourism, and then came the latest attacks on Istanbul as a real blow to the Turkish economy and tourism, which have been drained dramatically lately. These developments should affect large Turkish strategic projects as well, especially in the transportation sector and airports’ projects that have been seeking to turn Turkey into the largest hub in Europe. The issue of lack of security that is being rooted now will create a new reality of isolation difficult to overcome in the future; the security that has been being built for many long years could be lost in a matter of few months, especially when civilians are the main targets of terrorist attacks; not just the security forces.

The security reading regarding the attack on Istanbul indicates a remarkable shift in the nature of the operations implemented by the organization of ISIS, which still rotates around similar traditional operations, but that incorporates far more complicated planning and technical dimension. Accordingly, the world might be facing more intricate and sophisticated operations in the imminent future.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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Politics Author: - January 2, 2017

قراءة في عملية اسطنبول: نهج داعشي جديد و تهديدات جديدة قادمة

التحول اللافت في شكل العملية الارهابية التي نفذها داعش في اسطنبول خصوصاً من الجانب التقني و التكتيتي يشير الى انتقال تنظيم داعش لتبني اسلوب متقدم أكثر تعقيدا و يمكن تصنيفها على انها احدى نماذج العمليات الاستخبارية في شكل و اداء العملية، خصوصاً في قدرة منفذ العملية على تنفيذ العملية في توقيت مهم “احتفالية راس السنة” بالرغم من التحذيرات التي تم اطلاقها و من الاجراءات الامنية التي تم اتخاذها لمواجهة هذا الخطر. اما النقطة الاخطر و التي تشكل سابقة جديدة هي ان منفذ العملية لم ينتهج نهجاً سابقاً كتفجير نفسه او القتال في المكان حتى تتم تصفيته بل استطاع الانسحاب و التواري عن الانظار الى اليوم.

هذه المعطيات تفتح باب الاسئلة على مصراعيه، بالتحديد حول التحديات الامنية التي تواجه و ستواجه تركيا و دول أخرى مستقبلاً. خصوصاً ان فرضية تنفيذ عملية بهذا الحجم في مكان سياحي معروف بالرغم من اتخاذ كافة الاجراءات الامنية يشير الى قدرة اختراق عالية سواء للمنظومة الامنية او المجتمعية. ان قدرة شخص على تنفيذ مثل هذه العملية لابد ان تشير الى وجود عوامل مساعدة و حواضن داخلية تعمل على تسهيل كافة مراحل العملية: الوصول و تنفيذ المهمة باسقاط الهدف و الانسحاب و الاختفاء.

الضربة التي توجه الى تركيا اليوم تأتي في وقت تعيد تركيا فيه صياغة مواقفها السياسية و تبدأ معه عهداً من التحولات ظهرت بوادرها بانهاء معركة حلب و الانتقال الى مرحلة الهدنة في سوريا و الدور التركي عن جلب كافة الفصائل الى طاولة الحوار.

الضربات الامنية المتوالية تأتي أيضاً في فترة تمر فيها المنظومة الامنية التركية بمرحلة اعادة الصياغة و الترتيب بعد عملية الانقلاب الفاشل و التي تزيد من مهمة و قدرة مواجهة الارهاب صعوبةً و تعقيداً، عداك عن الصراع السياسي و المناخات السلبية التي شكلتها السياسة التركية في السنوات الاخيرة بحيث زاد عدد الاعداء و قل عدد الاصدقاء و الحلفاء.

تركيا التي كانت تحاول جاهدة ان تتعافى من مسألة انقطاع السياحة التي بدأت مع سقوط الطائرة الروسية و انقطاع الوجود السياحي الروسي، و النتائج السلبية لعدد من الهجمات الارهابية التي استهدفت سياحاً اوروبيين و من ثم تفجير مطار اسطنبول، كلها محطات عززت مسألة انقطاع السياحة لتأتي هجمات اسطنبول الاخيرة لتوجه ضربة حقيقية للسياحة و الاقتصاد التركي المستنزف مؤخراً بشكل كبير. هذه التطورات لابد ان تؤثر ايضاً على مشاريع استراتيجية تركية كبيرة خصوصاً في قطاع المواصلات و المطارات و التي كانت تسعى لتحويل تركيا الى نقطة الجذب الاكبر في اوروبا ذلك ان مسألة غياب الامن التي يتم تجذيرها الان ستخلق واقع جديد من العزلة يصعب تجاوزها مستقبلاً، فالامن الذي يتم بناءه عبر سنين طويلة يمكن خسارته في شهور قليلة خصوصاً عندما يتحول المدنيون -و ليس فقط الاجهزة الامنية- الى الهدف الرئيسي للعمليات الارهابية.

القراءة الامنية لعملية اسطنبول تشير الى تحول لافت في طبيعة العمليات التي ينفذها تنظيم داعش و التي مازالت تدور في فلك العمليات التقليدية لكن ببعد تقني اكثر تعقيداً و تخطيطاً، مما يعني ان العالم قد يكون على موعد مع عمليات اكثر تعقيداً و تطوراً في الايام القادمة.   

د.عامر السبايلة

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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Politics Author: - December 24, 2016

Jordan open confrontation with terrorism


The degenerating presence of ISIS on the Syrian and Iraqi soil forces the group to adopt a new strategy that aims to compensate its losses, offers the impression that it still retains its strength, and that it is still able to hit everywhere. Moreover, it is vital for the group to seek creating new climates that form attraction points for its members departing Syria and Iraq.  

The logical interpretation of the incidents in the city of Karak indicates the possibility of these operations being linked to a central decision, which means that the cell might not be an individual one. It might be a cell that works according to group’s methodology and strategy.


This is what the shape of the operation obviously shows, as well as the data and logistics that have been revealed. The location of the operation could also confirm this hypothesis. For instance, if we agreed that the security forces are the primary targets of this operation this explains the group’s desire to strike more than one bird with one stone by attacking the security forces as well as striking the tourist attraction. This is usually what happens in order to achieve many objectives such as:


1-   A moral blow to the state security system by displaying its inability to protect its tourist attractions.

2-   Taking advantage of the rapid speed in which news spreads through media in case of an assault on a historical landmark and tourist attraction.

3-   The possibility of foreign tourists being present in these areas, which gives the assault a global dimension.  

4-   These assaults also aim at inflicting economic blow on the country that is dependent on tourism as its means of income. It also creates atmosphere of angry citizens of the area, who are harmed by the dearth of tourism, or the poor economic situation that accompanies such circumstances so that they can exploit it later on in the future.


     Henceforth, the strategy that entails striking tourist areas is found to be the most effective and successful policy for many groups today.
The regression of ISIS’s organization in Syria and Iraq, along with the recent shifts following the battle of Aleppo causes Jordan to face series of challenges and dangers:

First, the relocation of fighters from one front to other fronts intensifies the possibilities of individual operations and increases the organization’s desire to create new hot spots.

Second, Jordan’s most critical challenge is the path of the battles in Syria after Aleppo, in which its compass might point towards the Syrian Southern border, placing increasing pressure on the Jordanian border and raising the danger ratio of repeated attacks. In this case, repeated attempts that aim at striking the national security and creating an atmosphere of internal disputes will take place; the 
organization’s subjects seek to exploit and employ it to the best of their interests.
 

Third, one of the prominent dangers of the next phase is characterized by the continuous regeneration of fighter cells and the activation of dormant cells that have been operating silently during the past years, and have been able to build networks of allies in the areas in which they are located.

Fourth, the arrival of these cells to the “individual working” phase; they will be isolated since the fall of the central order of the organization. These cells might be seeking to apply individual actions that depend on the surprise element, and usually aim at causing the most damage with minimal costs. This means uncomplicated operations such as; shooting at a security officer, or striking a crowded area of civilians using primitive techniques.


The increasing pressure on the fighters in Syria, and the Turkish borders being closed might push the fighters into targeting new areas and finding exit routes from which they can use in order to escape this state of pressure.


Thus, the challenges Jordan is facing are enormous. The alteration from having to deal with direct threats means that Jordan has moved into the open and direct confrontation stage with these organizations. That is why Jordan has to change the framework and the system in which it deals with these organizations. The graphic organizer of recent assaults that targeted Jordan indicates obvious increase in the configuration of the operations, their method and objectives. This means that they should be dealt with in a strictly firm way and in a way that foresees the coming confrontations in order to avoid any further dangerous and aggressive future threats. 

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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Politics Author: - December 21, 2016

الاردن : الانتقال الى مرحلة المواجهة المفتوحة مع الارهاب

لا يمكن تقديم اي قراءة امنية للاحداث الارهابية الاخيرة في مدينة الكرك بعيداً عن سياق الحوادث السابقة التي شهدها الاردن مؤخراً. كذلك لا يمكن استثناء البعد الاقليمي و انعكاساته على ما يجري اليوم على الساحة الاردنية، من الاوضاع العسكرية في سوريا و العراق الى التحولات السياسية في مواقف بعض الدول.


ان انحسار تواجد تنظيم داعش على الارض السورية و العراقية يدفع –بلاشك- بالتنظيم لانتهاج استراتيجية جديدة تعمل على تعويض الخسائر و تعطي الانطباع بأن التنظيم  يحتفظ بقوته و مازال قادراً على الضرب في كل مكان. بالتزامن مع ذلك، لابد ان يسعى التنظيم لخلق مناخات جديدة تشكل نقطة جذب لعناصره الخارجة من سوريا و العراق.


القراءة المنطقية لاحداث الكرك تشير الى احتمالية ارتباط هذه العملية بقرار مركزي، اي ان الخلية من الممكن الا تكون خلية فردية بل خلية تعمل وفقاً لمنهجية و استراتيجية التنظيم، هذا ما توضحه شكل العملية و حيثياتها و ما تم الكشف عنه من معطيات و لوجستيات. مكان العملية يمكن ان يؤكد هذه النظرية أيضاً، فلو اتفقنا ان قوات الامن هي المستهدف الرئيسي من هذه العملية الا انها توضح رغبة التنظيم بضرب أكثر من عصفور بحجر واحد، اي ضرب اجهزة الامن و  ضرب الاماكن السياحية ايضاً، وذلك عادة ما يتم لتحقيق عدة أهداف اهمها :


١ الضربة المعنوية للاجهزة الامنية و الدولة باظهار عدم قدرتها على حماية اماكنها السياحية.


٢ استغلال سرعة انتشار الخبر في وسائل الاعلام في حال تم الاعتداء على معلم تاريخي و سياحي.


٣ احتمال تواجد السياح الاجانب في هذه الاماكن مما يعطي الاعتداء بعداً عالمياً.


٤ توجه هذه الاعتداءات ضربة اقتصادية ايضاً للدولة المستهدفة المعتمدة في اقتصاداتها على الدخل القادم من السياحة و تخلق مناخات غاضبة من ابناء المنطقة المتضررين من انقطاع السياحة او من الاوضاع الاقتصادية السيئة التي تواكب مثل هذه الظروف بحيث يمكن استغلالها مستقبلاً.


 لهذا فان استراتيجية ضرب الاماكن السياحية هي استراتيجية تجد التنظيمات فيها اليوم الاستراتيجية الاكثر فعاليةً و نجاحاً.

ان انحسار تنظيم داعش في سوريا و العراق و التحولات الاخيرة بعد معركة حلب تضع الاردن في مواجهة سلسلة من التحديات و الاخطار:


 اولاً: انتقال المقاتلين من هذه الجبهات باتجاه جبهات أخرى مما يعني ارتفاع احتماليات تنفيذ عمليات فردية  و ازدياد الرغبة لدى التنظيم بخلق نقاط ساخنة جديدة.


ثانياً: التحدي الاهم للاردن هو مسار المعارك في سوريا بعد حلب و الذي قد تشير بوصلته الى الجبهة الجنوبية لسوريا مما يضع ضغطاً متزايداً على الحدود الاردنية و يرفع منسوب خطر استهدافها المتكرر. في هذه الحالة تتكرر عادة محاولات ضرب السلم الاهلي و خلق مناخات للنزاعات الداخلية يسعى عناصر التنظيم لاستغلالها و توظيفها لمصلحتهم.


ثالثاً: من الاخطار البارزة في المرحلة القادمة تمثله عملية “التفريخ” المستمر للخلايا المقاتلة و تفعيل الخلايا النائمة التي كانت تعمل بصمت على مدار السنوات الماضية و استطاعت ان تبني شبكات من المتعاونين معها في المناطق التي تتواجد بها.


رابعاً: وصول هذه الخلايا الى مرحلة العمل الفردي، اي ان تصبح بلا رأس نظراً لتعذر تطبيق النظام المركزي و انتظار تلقي الاوامر يمكن ان تسعى هذه الخلايا للتحرك الفردي و الذي يعتمد على عامل المفاجئة و عادة ما يهدف الى الحاق اكبر ضرر ممكن بأقل التكاليف اي عمليات غير معقدة، كاطلاق الرصاص على رجال الامن او ضرب التجمعات المدنية باساليب بدائية.


ان زيادة الضغط على المقاتلين في سوريا و اغلاق الحدود التركية قد يدفع بهؤلاء للسعي لاستهداف اماكن جديدة و البحث عن خاصرة رخوة يمكن استغلالها للهروب من حالة الضغط هذه.


لهذا فان التحديات امام الاردن هي تحديات كبيرة فالانتقال للتعاطي مع التهديدات المباشرة يعني ان الاردن انتقل الى مرحلة المواجهة المفتوحة و المباشرة مع هذه التنظيمات، لهذا فان الاردن مضطر لتغيير نمط و شكل التعامل مع هذه التنظيمات. فالمنحنى البياني للعمليات التي استهدفت الاردن تشير الى تصاعد واضح في نمط العمليات و شكلها و اهدافها مما يعني ضرورة التعامل معها بحزم شديد و باسلوب نوعي يستبق المواجهات القادمة لتفادي اي تهديدات مستقبلية أكثر خطورةً و عنفاً.


د.عامر السبايلة

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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Politics Author: - December 18, 2016

After Aleppo’s battle Jordan national security is the priority

The battle of Aleppo is one of the most important developments to see an end to the Syrian crisis, even though it won’t be the last battle. The Syrian regime’s win in Aleppo might, logically, push the fight against the terrorists to the south.

According to the experts the battle of Aleppo is a major step for the Syrian regime in regaining control of the country. In the absence of a clear vision from America, Russia with its allies have seized the moment to recapture Aleppo. Russia made a deal with Turkey to limit its involvement and support for the rebels in Aleppo. With the Turkish borders closed, the advantage shifted.

Recapturing Aleppo doesn’t give the Syrian Army full control over Syrian territory but it refocuses the conflict into a single dimension, fighting terrorism. A Trump White House will no doubt support this, as the President-elect has frequently expressed that his priority in Syria is to fight terrorism, and not political change. With the potential for new leaders in France and other European countries later next year, we may see more support for a similarly single-minded focus in Syria.

The battle of Aleppo will push the fight down to the south of the country. While Turkey was engaged in the north due to the proximity to its borders, Jordan may be forced to take a similar level of engagement as the fight pushes into the south. The impacts that this battle on the Jordanian borders will certainly decide level of the Jordanian engagement in such battle.

Jordan is closely monitoring the developments on that front. On military level, the Jordanian army is -at the same time- applying intensive border surveillance activities and setting the rules of engagement for any possible attack on Jordanian borders.

Jordan faces many challenges and threats with a lot of border territory with ISIS controlled areas in the Jordan-Syria-Iraq triangle. During the battle in Mosul there were reports of ISIS fighters close to the Jordanian border and any attempt to recapture Palmyra by ISIS will also put pressure on Jordan. Moreover, the recapturing of the city of Palmyra by ISIS would put more pressure on Jordan. Especially on the area of Iraqi, Syrian Jordanian shared borders.

The challenges for Jordan are only likely to increase and become more difficult to address. They will require a new way of dealing with threats, not just militarily and logistically but also politically. Jordan needs strong relationships with the Iraqi and Syrian counterparts as well as the capacity to build strong alliances with countries that can help Jordan in taking actions on the ground to confront these threats.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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Politics Author: - December 12, 2016

Israel and Hizbollah — what does the future have in store?

Once again in the last weeks we have seen reports of Israeli jet fighters attacking a Hezbollah convoy west of Damascus. These ongoing attacks of Hezbollah fighters, leaders and convoys are part of an escalation between Israel and Hezbollah that could soon lead to open confrontation. There are three factors that encourage Israel to seriously consider such a move.

The first is related to the presence of Hezbollah in Syria, and its proximity to the Golan Heights. According to many experts Hezbollah’s financial and human resources were seriously drained and it’s popularity on the decline within Lebanon and abroad. This could be an opportunity for Israel to attack Hezbollah directly after the war in Syria.

The second factor that would be of concern to Israel is the experience that Hezbollah’s fighters have gained in Syria. Cooperation with various militias and the development of new fighting techniques and tactics from having a wide network inside Syria and across the region could see Hezbollah implement them against Israel as their attention turns back to their traditional foe.

The third factor relates to the use of new technology and techniques in spying that Hezbollah has been using. There have been multiple incidents of drones crossing into Israeli air space and evading Israeli defenses taking pictures and collecting intelligence on Israeli troops and installations. This is a new threat to Israel and would be of great concern.

With these indicators suggesting an increasing probability of a confrontation, it begs the question as to what Hezbollah has prepared. We know that Hezbollah has new technology and techniques, but perhaps they are also thinking that offense is the best form of defense. Further, they may consider that surprise would be to their advantage, which means we could see a confrontation on Israeli soil.

Hezbollah would also be preparing itself for a solution to the crisis in Syria where they are no longer able to use it as a logistic, political and financial base, as they have in the past. The same would also apply to Iran, which is working to keep deals with the international community.

The result of this is that Hezbollah will not have the same level of backing as it has in the past. We are seeing a longer term change of Hezbollah’s political strategy as they have managed to facilitate the deal that saw their ally General Michael Aoun become the president of Lebanon, which may also see them address their illegal status of being a state within a state.

Despite all of these indicators, the key factor of whether we see a confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel or a regional settlement is likely to be determined by the new protagonist in the region, in Russia.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

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Politics Author: - December 4, 2016

Results that should not be ignored

Recently, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) launched: “the Arab Human Development Report (AHDR) 2016: Youth and the Prospects for Human Development in a Changing Reality.” The report highlights shocking facts and statistics regarding many aspects of the status of youth and the development process in the Arab world. It forecasts the risk of increasing chaos across Arab countries in the coming years.

In the Arab world, the population between the ages of 15 and 29 years is currently at 105 million and unemployment, poverty and marginalization of this population is growing. These and many other issues need to be considered and addressed by Arab governments. The report details growing feelings of inequality and frustration among youth as a result of high unemployment rates and a lack of political engagement. These are historic problems for the Arab world but we already know that increased marginalization and isolation can lead to violence and increased security threats and conflict.

Arabs represent 5% of the global population and are involved in more than 45% of terrorist acts. Arabs also make up a high percentage of the world’s refugee population. The report highlights the illegal immigration of frustrated and desperate people, but does not mention that educated and enlightened Arabs began leaving the region many years ago as they felt there is no place for them in their own countries. Arab immigration can be categorized as those who choose to leave and those who are forced.

The failure to build national identities, and the reliance on religious and tribal identity is one of the major reasons behind these issues in the Arab world. The report indicates that increasingly, Arab youth identify themselves more with their religion, sect or tribe than by their country. In 2002, five Arab states were mired in conflict and today there are 11. By 2020, the report predicts that almost three out of four Arabs could be “living in countries vulnerable to conflict”.

The terrifying facts in this report should urge all Arab governments to adopt effective strategies based on investing in the human-building process. The investment in cultural revolution and in providing people with decent services to give them the chance to build their own future. That is the key to effective change. Investments must be made in everything from culture to agriculture and target concrete issues that can change people’s lives.

For comparison, the report included the level of spending amongst Arab governments on security and foreign arms purchases. It is important to look at various police states that spent billions on security and the military, and still ended up a theater for chaos. Arab Governments should invest in its citizens and culture. The more these governments succeed   in engaging their citizens in the political and development process, the safer they will be. The key is to engage their citizens as protagonists for positive change, rather than antagonists to a properly functioning and safe society.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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Politics Author: - November 27, 2016

De-Radicalization: Time for serious actions

DE-radicalization is at the top of the agenda for stakeholders, donors and the Jordanian state. We are seeing multiple projects, speeches, conferences and workshops trying to address the issue and find a workable solution. While theories and proposals are to be encouraged, it is important that we begin to implement and trial some of these and move from theory to application..

Deradicalization is a process of change, and any such process should start with a comprehensive understanding of the underlying issues and clear objectives and outcomes. We must understand why it is that deradicalization is required. The level of radicalism that we are facing today is the result of a process that has been progressing for a long time, one that, on the whole, we have been blind to. In order to learn from the past and move forward, we have to be honest about all aspects of the issue.

We must understand and acknowledge that this is a complex issue and we need innovative thinking and people with a broad range of expertise. The issue is not just religious, there are cultural and economic aspects, and we need to bring people together, make them feel connected to each other and society to appreciate their existence and their neighbors. We must promote dignity and respect while reintegrating people to participate in building their own future and become productive for society.

We cannot continue to theorize, we need to intervene on the ground with practical measures. From here, concrete projects are more important than debates and conference. When we identify places with high levels of radicalization through polls surveys and studies, we must intervene. Playgrounds, parks, cultural plans, and programs that promote and enable artistic endeavours such as drawing, music, theater and cinemas are great ways to engage otherwise marginalized populations. We need microeconomic projects to intervene and break the cycle of radicalization. Improving quality of life, giving them hope for the future can be achieved by engaging them in art and culture. This is what we need to engage and involve people in creating this change.

We need to stop relying so much on the narrative that moderate doctrines can address radical Islam. Real change will come from cultural change, enhancing the concepts of pluralism, diversity and respect for others with real and practical programs on the ground. We can only face radicalism by adopting a comprehensive multilateral strategy.

The role of the state is essential. The absence of an active role in providing services and social justice is part of what has fostered the evolution of radical thought. We have also failed to accept the signs of increasing radicalism, but we must act. When a cinema in Zarqa was targeted by terrorists back in 1993, we responded with security measures, but ignored the underlying cause of the problem. That we didn’t protect cinemas and other cultural institutions means the terrorists have already won. The more that cultural institutions are targeted, the less people will attend them, which is exactly what we have seen.

The more prevaricate and pontificate, the more difficult and the more embedded the issue becomes. As radicalism expands and recruits more of our society, the more we face the risk that they will infiltrate all aspects of society, civilian and military. We must act before that happens. The time for talking and theorizing is over. We must face this scourge with action and we must do it now.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

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Politics Author: - November 27, 2016

Donald Trump Seen From The Arab & Muslim World

The election of Donald Trump as President of the United States represents the start of a new phase following eight years of the Obama administration.  While Trump’s win has surprised many people, Donald Trump the candidate will be very different to Donald Trump the President. His victory speech was the first indication of this change, and there is more to come. 


Prior to his candidacy, Trump was hardly known by the Muslim and Arab world. However, some of his comments during the campaign have lead to his portrayal as an enemy, with suggestions that his first priority as President will be to attack Arabs and Muslims. This perception will be difficult to change, as it was one of the key arguments used against him by his opponent and those in the media who do not support him. 

Trump’s management of the issue is not as simple as the media has portrayed, and it has massive political implications for Arab societies. A clear pillar of Trump’s foreign policy is to take the fight to the terrorists, specifically targeting ISIS. For many Arab leaders, especially the American-bloc leaders, a strong clear strategy to fight ISIS would be welcomed as it represents the re-building of relations with US through this anti-terror strategy. Many US allies in the region have struggled to openly support Obama’s strategy and rhetoric and have tried to deal with America under the same assumptions from the early stages of the War on Terror under George W. Bush. A US return to those strategies will be a relief to many regimes in the region.
 
A Hillary Clinton White House would likely have meant a new set of challenges for many Arab and Muslim countries. According to the Obama doctrine published in the Atlantic, the Arab world’s problems are internal. Their strategy was based on placing blame on the American-bloc countries in the region, especially the Gulf monarchies, particularly Saudi Arabia. 
This is despite those monarchies are facing the threat of new and diverse Islamic movements under the Muslim Brotherhood banner, in Egypt and across the Gulf that could lead to a new wave of Arab Spring uprisings targeting the monarchies and sheikhdoms. The arrival of Trump will make an uprising of these groups far more difficult but another Democrat in the White House, according to many observers, would have created a series of challenges based on the strategy of promoting democracy and human rights at all costs.

It is interesting to compare Trump’s stated position on the Gulf countries with the position that Congress has taken in overruling Obama’s veto of Justice Against Sponsors of Terror Act (JASTA). Clearly they are on the same page. The next challenge for Trump will be in relations with countries that support the Muslim Brotherhood.

While Trump may be viewed negatively by the Muslim and Arab public because of some of his comments, his relationship with their leaders is likely to be good as politically, their positions are aligned. Trump is likely to build relations based on cooperation in fighting terrorism and any steps towards weakening the Muslim Brotherhood because of the connections with terrorists, may force the region to return to the old paradigms which will rebuild US-Arab relations.
 A Trump White House could also lead to a rapprochement with Russia, which will have a huge impact on US foreign policy and specifically on NATO as the alliance is increasingly concerned with Russian aggression. It may lead to a new wave of political extremism and a growth in extreme right wing groups in Europe. It will also mean concrete changes on the ground in Syria, potentially ending the confusion of policy in the area.

The current dynamics in the Arab world mean that many leaders do not see a Trump Presidency as a negative. The two major threats to the current political system in the region are more serious calls for democracy and human rights, which would directly support the Muslim Brotherhood who are the only organized alternative in many political systems in the region.
These calls were supposed to be part of Clinton’s Agenda, so Trump’s win means that many leaders will avoid some tough challenges. Trump’s primary foreign policy agenda in the region is fighting terrorism, which will enable many countries to restore legitimacy and importance as part of an anti-terrorism alliance.
There are some threats still, especially for Gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia. Trump has made comments that indicate the type of relationship he wants to establish with Gulf countries. The US agenda after the passing of JASTA and overruling Obama’s veto is based on the Interest-Based Relational (IBR) approach.
The other interesting factor for the Gulf monarchies is Trump’s position on Iran. While Trump can do little to change the Iran nuclear deal signed by the P5+1, the Gulf countries can take solace in the fact that while he may not be an enemy to Iran, he is certainly not going to be a friend.

The other issue that interests Arabs is the President-elect’s position on Syria.  Trump’s declared statements about improving relations with Russia and taking serious steps against ISIS are steps that would likely help put an end to the crisis there, yet another positive for the Arab world.

The US relationship with Israel will also shape the way Arabs see the President-elect. Trump has publicly supported Netanyahu’s policies on many occasions. Apparently Netanyahu will also be the first leader to be received in the Trump White House. Full adoption of Israeli policies by Trump will negatively impact the perception of common Arabs and Muslims but not necessarily Arab leaders. However, it will impact the peace process and could increase the possibility of regional clashes.
Trump represents a series of contradictions that makes Middle Eastern politics seem more complicated. While the people of the Arab and Muslim world might view Trump negatively, their leaders might actually be quite positive towards him as his policies could have a positive impact for the region by creating common ground for cooperation especially in combatting terrorism.

While Iran would love to have a US President putting real pressure on the Gulf countries, it will not like him trying to revise their nuclear deal. Revising relations with Iran may be a positive for many Arab countries, but they will not be happy to see the US strong-arming Arab countries who would be happier to have an American president who cares more about fighting terrorism than imposing democracy and human rights issues. Syrians would love to have an American president who cares more about eliminating ISIS rather than the positioning on the future of Bashar Al Assad, but they would not like to see another American President who completely backs Israel in a regional settlement process.

Dr.Amer Al Sabaileh
amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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Politics Author: - November 20, 2016

Donald Trump seen form different Arab angles

The election of Donald Trump as President of the United States represents the start of a new phase following eight years of the Obama administration.  While Trump’s win has surprised many people, Donald Trump the candidate will be very different to Donald Trump the President. His victory speech was the first indication of this change, and there is more to come.

Prior to his candidacy, Trump was hardly known by the Muslim and Arab world. However, some of his comments during the campaign have lead to his portrayal as an enemy, with suggestions that his first priority as President will be to attack Arabs and Muslims. This perception will be difficult to change, as it was one of the key arguments used against him by his opponent and those in the media who do not support him.

Trump’s management of the issue is not as simple as the media has portrayed, and it has massive political implications for Arab societies. A clear pillar of Trump’s foreign policy is to take the fight to the terrorists, specifically targeting ISIS. For many Arab leaders, especially the American-bloc leaders, a strong clear strategy to fight ISIS would be welcomed as it represents the re-building of relations with US through this anti-terror strategy. Many US allies in the region have struggled to openly support Obama’s strategy and rhetoric and have tried to deal with America under the same assumptions from the early stages of the War on Terror under George W. Bush. A US return to those strategies will be a relief to many regimes in the region.

A Hillary Clinton White House would likely have meant a new set of challenges for many Arab and Muslim countries. According to the Obama doctrine published in the Atlantic, the Arab world’s problems are internal. Their strategy was based on placing blame on the American-bloc countries in the region, especially the Gulf monarchies, particularly Saudi Arabia.

This is despite those monarchies are facing the threat of new and diverse Islamic movements under the Muslim Brotherhood banner, in Egypt and across the Gulf that could lead to a new wave of Arab Spring uprisings targeting the monarchies and sheikhdoms. The arrival of Trump will make a rising up of these groups far more difficult but another Democrat in the White House, according to many observers, would have created a series of challenges based on the strategy of promoting democracy and human rights at all costs.

It is interesting to compare Trump’s stated position on the Gulf countries with the position that Congress has taken in overruling Obama’s veto of JASTA. Clearly they are on the same page. The next challenge for Trump will be in relations with countries that support the Muslim Brotherhood.

While Trump may be viewed negatively by the Muslim and Arab public because of some of his comments, his relationship with their leaders is likely to be good as politically, their positions are aligned. Trump is likely to build relations based on cooperation in fighting terrorism and any steps towards weakening the Muslim Brotherhood because of the connections with terrorist then the region will return to the old paradigms which will rebuild US-Arab relations

A Trump White House could also lead to a rapprochement with Russia, which will have a huge impact on US foreign policy and specifically on NATO as that alliance is built entirely on Russia as an enemy. It may lead to a new wave of political extremism and a growth in extreme right wing groups in Europe. It will also mean concrete changes on the ground in Syria ending the confusion and need to work with groups that are also terrorists.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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