Author Archives: Amer Al Sabaileh

Politics Author: - September 17, 2017

Russia in the Middle East

Over the last few years, the Middle East has started to witness the presence of new political protagonists, Russia as a very strong evident player, Germany a strong but latent player, and China as a strong economic power.

Russia has played a role in most of the major issues in the Middle East. Since their entry into the Syrian crisis, we have seen analysts incorrectly predicting Russia’s next move through an apparent misinterpretation of their motives.

Many reported that Russia’s support of Syria was limited and unreliable. And yet, Syria has been the key to Russia’s successful engagement in the region and over recent years has proven reliable to its allies. Now, as Russia has become central to everything from regional security to the peace process, we must change our approach and recognize their influence and importance.

Russian diplomacy has been key to creating the potential for an end to the Syrian crisis. Critical to the shift in the Syria situation is changes in position from Turkey, US, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. It was Russian diplomacy that positioned each of these countries to shift.

There is now a unified effort to fight terrorism, and it is this unity that is opening political channels and building alliance. Given the success in Syria, Russia’s influence in the region is spreading. Russia is now allied to both Israel and Syria. Logically that positions them very well as a mediator. This could lead to greater support from countries like Jordan, Egypt and the Palestinian authority to play a similar role in the Peace Process, as Russia creates a political equilibrium while the White House instinctively backs Israel.

Russia also has long standing good relations with Iran as well as positive and growing engagement with the Gulf Countries. These could very well position Russia for a central role in reconciling the issues around Yemen and potentially even Qatar. We have even seen Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visit Gulf countries several times lately, suggesting that while Syria might be Moscow’s priority at the moment, it is taking the opportunity to broaden friendships and position for continued importance down the track.

Regional geopolitics are fluid and dynamic, with new protagonists and shifting alliances. Russia’s presence and influence in the region is unlikely to remain limited to Syria, but rather the beginning of a long-term presence and power in the region.

Dr Amer Al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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Politics Author: - September 10, 2017

The path toward the regional settlements

Since the Astana negotiations the crisis in Syria has been on the path towards resolution. We have seen multiple factors working towards this resolution including the shift in Turkey’s position, the Russo-Turkish alliance and more recently the Gulf crisis and the rising Qatari-Saudi hostilities.

As the Qataris have positioned against Saudi Arabia, armed groups in Syria have lost financial and logistical support and as the Qatari Iranian rapprochement has developed, Syria and its allies have strengthened as Iran, Russia and Hezbollah have been draining the resistance in many areas across Syria.

As a major neighbor, Jordan has also begun to reposition as a result of these shifts. Stability in the south of Syria is a primary objective due to the direct link to stability and national security within Jordanian borders. In addition to security, from an economic and political perspective the stabilization and reopening of the border with Syria is a critical step in normalizing and rebuilding the Syrian state.

In parallel and of equal strategic importance for Jordan are efforts to reengage with Iraq and reopen that border. Broader regional developments have created new challenges on this front. Stability and security remains fragile, as does Jordan’s ability to build strong political ties. Additionally, the potential for renewed relations for Iraq with Saudi Arabia and the possibility of new border openings between them will be distracting and a higher priority for Iraq.

Given that regime change is no longer the priority in Syria and all of the key stakeholders have changed their narrative, resolution of the Syria issue and outlining a pathway to bring Syria back into the Arab League should become a priority. Egypt is in the box seat given that since the fall of the Muslim Brotherhood there, Egyptian-Syrian relations have been progressively improving.

While Saudi Arabia led the anti-Syria campaign in the region, they have cause to reconsider their position. They are seeking to disengage from conflict and crisis in Yemen and Syria as Qatar develops the upper hand in Syria and Iran encouraging the wasting of their resources in Yemen.

While Saudi Arabia has been quick to war and capable of building coalitions against shared enemies, the Minister of Defence, who has become the Crown Prince is transitioning to become King, which could very well result in a transition from war to peace.

Saudi Arabia has many great challenges to face in the coming generation and needs development and economic growth in order to face them. So while successfully waging war may have made him Crown Prince, stability and growth is the path to becoming King.

As a result, we may see a regional shift towards peace, social development and economic growth, things the Arab world greatly need.

Dr. Amer AL Sabaileh

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Politics Author: - August 27, 2017

Erdogan in Amman, but what Jordan really needs?

During his recent visit to Jordan, Turkish President Erdogan spoke of the Jordanian role in Jerusalem. However, he did not mention the Hashemite custodianship over the holy sites, which is interesting given the perceived Turkish support of the Hashemite custodianship of al Aqsa Mosque.

Erdogan’s visit comes at a time where Jordan is drifting from its strategic alliances with Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt and Bahrain. This drift is particularly stark in dealing with the Muslim Brotherhood, as these allies are taking steps to list the organization as a terrorist group while they are coming to power in municipality elections across Jordan. Of particular note is in the city of Zarqa, which represents a base of the radical Islamic doctrine. Any perceived support or even lack of opposition to the Brotherhood could send negative messages to Arab countries while edging closer to the Turkish government.

Turkey’s regional strategic position currently faces several major challenges. Firstly the dynamics in Syria have turned against them while the US is positioning ever closer to the Kurds and the potential for an independent state. Losing positioning in Syria is one thing, but the potential for Kurdish independence is a clear territorial threat to Turkey. In addition, Erdogan’s major ally in the Muslim Brotherhood are being targeted by the Arab countries and increasingly isolating Turkey politically, especially when combined with their supportive position on Qatar.

Erdogan is clearly seeking engagement in Jordan to counter the isolation from the rest of the Arab countries. For Jordan, this may well be the breaking of the ice for a traditionally lackluster relationship with Turkey. What we must be careful of in this though is that we do not send the wrong message to our Arab allies, and trigger isolation from them as well.

Jordan needs to diversify its options and open communications channels and engagement with all key players in the region, including Turkey. We can leverage our geographically strategic position in the region, but it must be part of a clear strategy that outlines what we want to achieve and where we want to position ourselves.

Jordan is increasingly being isolated politically, so a clear exit strategy from the current political situation is required. It will be challenging to rebuild ties with Syria and Iraq, but that is key given the shared borders. The deterioration of relations with Israel is also a serious challenge that must be addressed, as is the relationship with Saudi Arabia, which continues to head in the wrong direction.

With all the challenges that Jordan faces, what is needed is a new progressive vision that includes serious changes. Jordan needs a new direction and key to this is more credible people in the political system, as new policies are unlikely with old faces.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

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Politics Author: - August 22, 2017

ايتماتوف ورسائل الانسانية العابرة للحدود.. ملامح الشخصية ومعالم الابداع*


لا يمكن لاي انسان يقف امام قبر الشاعر القرغيزي الكبير جينكيز ايتماتوف الا ان يذهل من التضاريس الجبيلة التي تحيط بمرقد الراحل الكبير. اما حالة الانبهار الحقيقية فتتجسد في قدرة الشاعر الكبير على تحويل كلماته وافكاره الى مفاهيم عابرة  للحدود ومتمردة على عوامل الجغرافية.
من وجهة نظر متواضعة، تكمن اهمية جينكيز ايتماتوف في قدرته على الغوص في تفاصيل روحه الانسانية وقدرته على رسم واعادة قراءة الاسطورة  والمآساة الانسانية بادق تفاصيلها.  كذلك تبلور ابداع الشاعر في جرأة المواجهة وتناوله للمحظورات على انها واقع لابد من الاشارة اليه بجرأة والتعاطي معه بعيداً عن التابوهات المجتمعية، وبالرغم من حجم الالم تبقى نظرية بقاء الانسان محكوماً بالامل من اجمل الخصائص التي يمكن ملاحظتها في عالم اياتاتوف.
ان الافكار الكامنة في الموروث الروائي والشعري للشاعر القرغيزي الكبير تقدم لنا اليوم وصفة أمل يمكن ان تؤسس فعلياً لارضية فكرية قادرة على التقريب بين الافكار والشعوب والمختلفة. فالامل والرغبة بمستقبل افضل، والرؤية الانسانية المتجاوزة للحدود تشكل اليوم موروثاً انسانياً يمكن التعويل عليه جدياً في بناء القواعد الاساسية لمنظومة حوار وتواصل بين الشعوب تستند على اساس المساواة والاحترام والمنفعة المشتركة.
الادب والسياسة…النور والعتمة
اما ايتماتوف السياسي  فيمثل اليوم ايضاً وصفة وحاجة لكل عالم السياسة والسياسيين. فمع انتشار الصراعات والحروب، واتساع رقعة الارهاب والمواجهات الدموية وغياب اي افق لحلول حقيقية قادرة على احتواء الازمات والمشاكل خصوصاً مع اخذ مسألة الهجمات الارهابية بعداً كونياً يتطلب ايضاً الاتفاق على اسلوب مواجهة كوني، تظهر شخصية ايتماتوف الانسانية في عالم السياسة لتذكرنا بضرورة ان تتسم السياسة اليوم بمسحات انسانية. فالاديب والشاعر السياسي تكمن في شخصيته اضاءات انسانية لا يمكن ان يتم المساومة عليها حيث لا يمكن ان تنتصر المصالح على القيم او الموت على الحياة.
 ان عالمنا اليوم بحاجة ان يقرع في عالم السياسة جرس الانذار الاخير،  فلابد للامل ان ينتصر على الالم كما ينتصر الحب على الكراهية، وكذلك رغبة البقاء على الفناء والحياة على الموت. هذه الارضية التي يمكن لها اليوم ان توقف حركة السقوط المتواصل والانحطاط في القيمة الانسانية التي تذكيه اليوم كثير من السياسات. 
اما النقطة التي لا تقل اهمية في شخصية وتركيبة ايتماتوف فتكمن في قدرته على البحث عن المتشاركات دون الاضطرار الى انكار الاختلافات.
الانسانية ووصفة الحل
ان عالم اليوم المتخن بالتقسيمات الطائفية والدينية والاثنية لا يمكن له ان يواجه هذه التحديات الا عبر تبنى رؤية جديدة تسقط قدرة هذه الاختلافات على خلق الصراعات. فالمعيار الانساني هو القاسم المشترك الاكبر الذي لايمكن ان يتم اخضاعه للمعايير الطائفية، والجغرافية والاثنية والدينية. 
لهذا فان رسائل ايتماتوف  المتوافقة مع اعتبار الانسان والانسانية عامل موحد لبني البشر هو ما يجب تعزيزه وتغذيته اليوم. 
ان تشكل هذه القناعات هو الاساس الوحيد الذي يمكن ان تبنى عليه اي عملية تقارب بين البشر وهو كذلك السلاح الوحيد القادرعلى انهاء الظاهرة القائلة بان الاختلاف سبب من اسباب الصراع.
ان الرسالة التي يجب العمل على ابرازها هي الرسالة الانسانية الكونية، التي يمكن ان تقرب بين الاجساد والعقول في  المسافات والافكار، ولعل أهم الواجبات الاخلاقية يتطلب ان يقوم كل انسان بدوره في اطار هذه المعادلة الشاقة. 
من هنا، ان القاء الضورء على الموروث الشخصي والفكري والابداعي للراحل ايتماتاتوف يشكل نقطة مهمة في عملية كسر طوق العتمة الذي بات يطبق على عنق البشرية، ويشكل نقطة مضيئة يمكن التعويل عليها مستقبلاً في ايجاد متشابهات قادرة على بناء شراكات متوازنة بين الحضارات عوضاً عن الانسياق خلف الصراعات غير المتناهية.
د. عامر السبايلة


*مادة كتبت على خلفية المشاركة في المنتدى الدولي للكتاب والمثقفين “قراءات في أيتماتوف: حوار الثقافات” الذي استضافت مدينة بيشكيك، عاصمة جمهورية قرغيزستان،  خلال الفترة 17-19 أغسطس/آب 2017. هذا النص يلخص مداخلة  الكاتب في المنتدى وقد كان فيه مشاركاً . وقد أشرف على إدارة وإجراء هذا المنتدى الهام لشخصية أدبية من الوزن الثقيل مثل أيتماتوف منسق مجموعة الرؤية الاستراتيجية “روسيا – العالم الإسلامي” السفير فنيامين بوبوف. كما ألقيت كلمات ترحيبية لراعي المنتدى رئيس جمهورية قيرغيزستان ألمازبك أتامبايف ولوزير الثقافة والإعلام والسياحة في جمهورية قيرغيزستان توغلباي كازاكوف ولـنائب وزير خارجية الاتحاد الروسي ميخائيل بوغدانوف. كما شهد المنتدى مداخلات المشاركين فيه من روسيا وتتارستان وقرغيزستان والصين وطاجيكستان ومصر ولبنان وفلسطين. إليكم، قراءنا الأعزاء، هذه المقالة القيمة.

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Politics Author: - August 20, 2017

Jordan’s geo-political priorities now

With increasing tensions and complexity in the region, Jordan should focus on strong bilateral relations with Syria and Iraq as the first priority of national security.

There is no doubt that regional politics are heating up even further, and Jordan’s ties with the Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia, have changed regarding economic support and aid. The evolving Saudi role in the region can have a negative impact on Jordan, as this might drive regional settlement and normalization of relations with Israel which will lead to marginalize any Jordanian role in the region.

While Jordanian relations with the US remain strong, American priorities have shifted dramatically and are built on strategic and economic common interest. The distinct deterioration of relations between Israel and Jordan puts more pressure on Amman and could also lead to negative outcomes, not least in developments around Palestine.

In this evolving environment, Jordan must change the way it manages its political strategy, how it communicates and how it engages in the region. Seeking better relations with Damascus and Baghdad is no longer a luxury, and is a necessary measure to position Jordan to influence how the crises are addressed in order to protect the future economic and security stability.

Jordan needs to take another look at how it engages in regional politics and implement a new strategy based on a clear objective. This is unlikely to be successful with the current mentality and protagonists that led to the deterioration between Jordan and its neighboring countries, particularly Iraq and Syria. We have seen many officials responsible for these issues openly declaring anti Syrian and Iraqi positions.

The same approach and tools are unlikely to be effective in a new phase of common strategic interests with our neighbors. It is a huge challenge for Jordan and needs a clear vision, the right tools and a high level of political flexibility.  It is time to change faces in Jordan, time for new strategic minds to take part in the decision making process.

These changes are needed if we are to face the coming challenges. We must communicate to our neighbors that we are undertaking this change and are looking to establish and build strong relations with our neighbors and the region.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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Politics Author: - August 14, 2017

“Internal political efficacy” is a priority

The challenges facing Jordan have been increasing over the last few months. While much of the focus has been on the external threats, modern history teaches us that while Jordan’s stability is inextricably linked with the stability of the region, maintaining stability amongst the population and the internal community is just as important.

The lessons learned from the uprising in April 1989 should lead us to what has been done to address the underlying issues that pushed people to take the streets. The south of Jordan holds the majority of the country’s wealth and resources – from potassium, phosphate, tourism and the key port of Aqaba. However people in the south are marginalized suffer from a lack of services, poverty and unemployment.

There is a distinct lack of development strategies or any serious socio-economic plan to address these issues. We need more than the same old rhetoric, and while there are no easy solutions in the short term, we must make a start now.

Jordanians have never been anti-state, in fact we do respect the establishment and believe that the GID and Jordanian Armed Forces (JAF) protect and guarantee our stability. It is important to capitalize on this and be careful not to lose that support.

The recent shooting of a police officer in Maan should act as a wake up call to respond to the risk of losing the people’s support. It is important to impose the state sovereignty and punish anyone who threatens this authority. But it is also important to remember that when people become frustrated from feelings of helplessness they lose control and so does the state. It also creates fertile ground for radical ideology to take root.

Jordan’s economy needs reform through a progressive vision that takes into consideration the change in international politics. Jordan should consider a more independent strategy that takes the needs and desires of citizens into account.

Recent incidents and risk indicators should serve as a wake up call to the political leadership to reconsider the concept of national security. It is not limited to technical security and border protection. There needs to be a more progressive strategy with programs that provides citizens what they need and communicates a coherent narrative to develop our economy and communities. Only this will combat radicalization and meet the challenges that we face as a nation and as a people.

Dr.Amer Al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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Politics Author: - August 6, 2017

The risk of political isolation

The ever dynamic geopolitics of the Middle East have been particularly fluid recently. Since the recent visit to Riyadh by President Trump, which included a summit and announcement of an anti-terrorism coalition, Saudi Arabia has positioned itself as the main political protagonist in the region.

If Saudi Arabia is serious about taking the initiative for real progressive reform within the Islamic world, then there is hope for change. However, it will not be easy, especially given the internal politics that the ruling class in Saudi is facing.

Separating the religious state and the nation state is the only real way to end the continuous official exploitation of religion. A clear division between the religious mandate as the custodian of the two holy mosques and the King of Saudi Arabia’s mandate as leader of the state is required. Religion must be depoliticized in order for an independent nation state in Saudi Arabia.

This would also mean that the Sunni Islam community would have a single interlocutor, who is also the custodian of the two holy mosques. This clear division could also create a clearer religious identity and legitimacy for the custodians.

In the meantime, we are also seeing normalization of relations between Israel and some Arab countries. The Israeli Prime Minister, Binyamin Netanyahu has referred to this on two different occasions recently. Firstly he said that Israel is more interested in peace with Arab countries. Secondly, when he welcomed President Trump to Israel, he commented that he looks forward to the day when a plane could do the same route that President Trump did but directly go from Jerusalem to Riyadh, rather than having to route through a third country.

The increasing normalization of Israeli-Arab relations and the potential for an exclusive group representing the Sunni Muslim community, combined would have wider implications across the region and the world. In particular it could politically isolate some countries and reduce their influence.

Jordan is one of the countries that could be affected by these developments. Sovereignty over al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem could stir competition and rivalry among Muslim political system. We saw the potential for this in the recent issues as several groups claimed to have influenced the Israeli decision to reopen the mosque.

Jordan’s strategic geography has always been an advantage, but clever strategic thinking is required in order to leverage that advantage. Given recent developments, Jordan should be seeking a complete change in attitude, strategies and political decisions.

Jordan should seek to reengage with Iraq and Syria, as in any process of re building Syria, Damascus could be the lungs from which Jordan breathes. Jordan also needs to pivot to bolster its internal systems as true legitimacy comes from a strong internal political system. There is a real risk of increased weakening of the internal regime as a result of external factors like the Al Aqsa mosque.

It is important also to review how Israeli-Jordanian relations have deteriorated to this point. The Israeli Ambassador and entire staff have left Jordan, which is effectively an unofficial severing of diplomatic ties. Given the peace treaty between Jordan and Israel, it is important to revise how both countries got to this point.

Jordan must focus and be smart enough to avoid the potential political isolation that could be a result of recent developments in the region.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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Politics Author: - July 30, 2017

Heading towards an Israel-Hizbollah confrontation?

The current US administration has clearly adopted an anti-Iranian strategy that is not limited to rhetoric but also includes putting pressure on its allies to assist in isolating Iran.

Prince Tamim of Qatar gave a speech last week thanking the countries that opened air space for Qatari planes, without mentioning Iran. We also saw the recent Kuwaiti diplomatic crisis with Iran, which resulted in the expulsion of the Iranian ambassador and 14 other diplomats for alleged links to a spy and terror cell.  The US President has also asked Sultan Qaboos of Oman to help contain Iran’s influence in the region, and observers are carefully witnessing the Saudi attempts to open a dialogue with Iraq as a further attempt to contain Iranian influence.

This coordinated effort is not limited to Iran, but also to its key allies. Recently we saw the US anti-Hezbollah rhetoric reappear as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley urging the U.N. Security Council to acknowledge that Hezbollah  “is a destructive terrorist force” and “a major obstacle to peace” that is “dedicated to the destruction of Israel.” This rhetoric harks back to the 2005-2008 policies that targeted the Lebanese party and preceded the July 2006 war against Hezbollah. 

This new approach was also seen during the Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Al Hariri’s last visit to Washington and his meeting with President Trump. The likely goal is to isolate Hezbollah and put more pressure on them as new agreements and understandings are being negotiated in Syria.

According to the US National Security Report, Hezbollah has not been listed as a direct threat to the US for the last three years due to its role in fighting terrorist groups. That assessment has clearly shifted as Hezbollah is being leveraged as part of the plan to isolate Iran. We are also likely to see greater US efforts to enforce decisions on Hezbollah and more calls on the militant group to disarm.

These changes in the US’ approach comes at a time where the activity in Syria is reducing, so Hezbollah is increasingly turning its attention back to Lebanon. Over recent years there have been reports that Hezbollah’s weaponization has peaked, including technologically. They have definitely suffered a significant level of casualties both in manpower and financially.

Hezbollah has also seen a shift in the level of support from their key supporter base, including areas that were generally regarded as social incubators for their movement. Yet they have been improving tactically and the soldiers and members they do have are battle hardened and have much more experience than previously from their extensive activities in Syria.

Even though Hezbollah may be facing serious political, social and financial challenges, it is still a serious and well-organized opponent to both the US and Israel. Hezbollah’s main strategy will continue to be based on raising the cost of war on Israel and trying to shift the battle lines south towards the upper Galilee.

It appears we are seeing the anticipatory phase before an inevitable confrontation, as Israel is not willing to accept the increasing threats that Hezbollah represents. Seizing the US strategy of isolating Iran, a fragile Syria and the consensus that many Arab states share on the issue of weakening Hezbollah. All of this suggests that the coming months might bring some attention’s shift from Syria to its neighboring countries.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

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Politics Author: - July 23, 2017

More serious challenges are internal

Over recent months there have been questions about how Jordan has been invulnerable to any serious terrorist attacks, especially after the battles of Mosul and Raqqa. While there are many reasons why Jordan has not had a serious attack, there are also many signs that Jordan like any other country is not invulnerable and is indeed under real threat.

The Russo-American cooperation in the south of Syria has been a major factor in containing the threat of ISIS and protecting Jordan’s borders. However, the major security challenges Jordan faces are internal.

While on the surface the economy is the major challenge in Jordan, the underlying challenge is the lack of clear vision for the future of the country. If we compare Jordan’s development plans in the 1950s and 60s where we had national plans across major sectors, a well functioning bureaucracy and the creation of major institutions such as the University of Jordan, the Hussein Medical Center as well as radio and TV and sport city.

We have seen other major projects in more recent years, but we appear to have lost the national spirit and reinforcing national identity that comes with them. As part of this Jordanians have lost the feeling that their government represents them and that citizen dignity and respect is the priority of the system of government.

The loss of these sentiments is one of the major sources of discontent in Jordan. There is no denying that the socio-economic situation in Jordan represent big part of the problem, but the lack of narrative and clear direction for the future means people feel lost and confused.

In the absence of a national identity narrative, this vacuum is being filled by religious narratives that make people belong more and more to the past, making it more difficult to integrate and react positively to the present.

What Jordan needs today is a change in the political class, not in personnel, but how leaders and bureaucrats are thinking. Policies and plans should start thinking of collective efforts to achieve future goals. Jordanians need to discover their history to understand the value that their land represents and this would be the first step toward the change in mentality, behavior and how they interact with society.

Unfortunately, the policies of recent years have accumulated power in the hands of an inner circle in Amman, where most of the cities in Jordan have paid the price of being neglected at all levels. The main challenge today is how to reengage the youth so they feel they are part of this country, making them protagonists of change and development not antagonists of society. This cannot happen if the same people continue with the same approach, narratives and lack of vision that dominate the political scene at the moment.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

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Politics Author: - July 17, 2017

Qatar crisis, where to?

A few months ago when Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries took a stand against Qatar, it was clear that the crisis is not a short term one. The countries involved have a long history of conflict with Qatar, including recent attempts to influence their policies.

While it is unlikely to be a short-term crisis, there is little suggestion of the potential for military escalation. Rather, it is more likely the next steps will be an escalation of economic and jurisdictional measures against Qatar.

In recent weeks the Qatari Foreign Minister has visited major global capital cities to speak with his counterparts who could influence international decision-making on the issue. The strategy is to demonstrate the Qatari willingness to negotiate on the key issues and to defend themselves against accusations of sponsoring and supporting terrorism.

Also under discussion is likely to have been the potential deepening of Qatari relations with Iran, which goes against the demands of the Gulf States. It is distinctly possible that this is already moving as indicated by events in Syria. Some believe that the recent progress of the Syrian Army and its allies on the ground are a result of the new Qatari position with Iran.

While relations with Iran are a useful political leverage point for Doha, it could easily backfire. Qatar’s strategy is heavily reliant on the US to step in to defend it; deeper relations with Iran are unlikely to lead down a path where the US protects it. Qatar has signed a MOU with the US to support the fight against terrorism; the current US administration may well interpret that to include Iran.

The US appears to be eager to contain the gulf crisis, despite the fact that the Trump administration’s containment plan for Iran is based on increasing pressure and isolation. As such, it will be interesting to watch how Doha pivots back to the US and distance itself from Iran in order to resolve the Gulf crisis.

Qatar’s other ally in Turkey is also struggling both in Syria and within its own borders. The US-Kurdish alliance is causing issues, enough for the Turkish President to publicly criticize its establishment quite bluntly, but to no avail. Internal Turkish politics are heating up with growth in support for opposition parties, internal fragmentation and increased security concerns.

What we are seeing is that Qatar’s two strongest supporters in the Gulf crisis in Iran and Turkey are unlikely to be able to maintain their positions in the longer term. Qatar’s best option is to position with the US as an impartial broker, however that will likely require Doha to accept a large part of the demands from its Gulf neighbors.

Dr. Amer AL Sabaileh

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