Author Archives: Amer Al Sabaileh

Politics Author: - November 13, 2016

Coping with Change

One of the key characteristics of a progressive society is its capacity to deal with new developments.  As life moves forward people must adapt, accept and live with new concepts that appear, from technology, lifestyle changes, new ways of thinking, and changing services.

In Jordan one of the major hindrances to the development process is a lack of a decent, well-organized and modern transportation system. Even what we call public buses are in most of the cases privately operated services that function as a public service with no systematic plan, timetable, set routes. Most don’t even follow the laws of the road or accepted rules of driving.  Ignoring this infrastructure failure will eventually lead to more catastrophes like the recent accident with university students on the Mafraq –Irbid Highway.

The issue of transportation in Jordan is not new, but it is increasingly illogical to ignore. Jordanians are totally dependent on their cars for almost every aspect of our lives, and as a result there is rarely a car with more than two passengers on the road.  We are stuck without a decent alternative and traffic congestion is worsening every day.

Another result is increasing issues with the availability and usability of taxis. Most have experience with denial of service, where the drives asks your destination and gauges the value of the trip before accepting to take the fare, and that is if you can even find a taxi, especially at certain times and when it is raining. On top of this our cab drivers often do not know how to get to the destination, and the quality and condition of many taxis leaves much to be desired. These issues also often leads to surge pricing, off-meter fares and drivers asking exorbitant rates, especially of foreigners. We also see many cases of radical driver attitudes, as well as verbal and sexual harassment.

Our transport problems cannot be solved without control over the system, which will also have positive impacts from a security perspective. We need a new service that addresses these issues..

Recently, new and efficient transportation services like UBER and CAREEM have launched. It was expected that the new services would trigger anger amongst existing taxi drivers, but instead it seems the government who has for so long failed to provide the needed services is now working against this new operator instead of seizing the opportunity to improve the whole industry and the quality of transportation in Jordan.

It is a real shame to see our country fighting progress and development. Prison is not the answer to freedom of speech in the same way that it is not the answer to services like this, which are booming in other countries, including in our region and changing the nature of transportation. The solution is not in putting people in jail or seizing cars, it is by compromising and facilitating progress with new laws and regulations.

If we can learn to accept and embrace new services like this we would not only see improvement and development in transportation but across industries and our society. It is about time the government considers adopting and embracing new technologies and new solutions to problems that will make a huge difference and improvement to the lives of Jordanians. We should always remember that life goes forward.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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Politics Author: - November 9, 2016

New President in Lebanon: The victory for whom?

After more than two years without a President, Lebanon has finally elected Michel Aoun. It is really interesting to follow the various narratives being run amongst the political elites in Lebanon to explain Aoun’s arrival at Ba’abdah Palace.

Shifting priorities across the region have variously impacted on Lebanon over the last few years. Filling the power vacuum of the last two years in Lebanon is likely to have a positive effect on many of its neighbors. It has also encouraged the political players in Lebanon to isolate and insulate them from regional and international influence into the future.

For many years the Lebanese people have found that Syria, Iran Saudi Arabia, France and the US have shaped the domestic political landscape in Lebanon from the outside. There has been a belief that a stable government in Lebanon required a difficult consensus amongst those powers.

The change this week appears to have thrown all of the Lebanese political parties into crisis so they all need to stake thinking about how to progress Lebanon. The election of Michel Aoun doesn’t represent a victory for any group, but rather the need to find internal consensus.

For Hezbollah, the coming years will bring various challenges especially after the Syrian crisis that will inevitably result in some kind of change especially in the cooperation they have enjoyed previously. The same could be said with Iran after the signing of the nuclear agreement and its commitment to the international community, which will limit its support for the group, beside the financial restrictions applied recently in Lebanon. So Hezbollah will have to rethink its strategy to grow political influence and power.

Christianity in Lebanon is also enjoying a unity that it has not seen for many years. Samir Geagea, the leader of the “Lebanese Force” was one of the key players in nominating Aoun for President, and tactically has joined Aoun as a defender of Christians from the “Takfiri” terrorist groups. Moreover, by supporting Michael Aoun, Samir Geagea has made himself more viable as a future candidate for the Presidency in the future.

The Presidency of Michel Aoun is an important opportunity to put Lebanon back on track, but as President he cannot adopt the same language and positions that he used to. The same applies to Sa’d al Hariri as Prime Minister. He needs to show political flexibility, as the main challenge for Lebanon is not just internal economic, security and development but also the challenge of restoring relations with other countries.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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Politics Author: - October 31, 2016

New trends in terrorism

Over the last few decades we have seen the evolution of terrorist doctrines from Al Qaeda through to ISIS. The key change we have seen is an increased level of violence and brutality in their doctrine and attacks.There are many questions regarding the …

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Politics Author: - October 24, 2016

Mosul Battle: What next

According to various security reports, the last few weeks have seen a mass systematic withdrawal of IS fighters from Mosul, anticipating the US operation of liberating Mosul from ISIS.

Politically, the US insists on separating the efforts of fighting ISIS in its main cities of Mosul and Raqqa. This kind of tactic highlights the lack of pragmatism in the way the US is fighting terrorism in the Middle East.

Since the declaration of the Caliphate by IS, the US has wanted to appear as the savior and liberator of Mosul and Raqqa.  There was a similar Hollywood-style in the assassination of Osama Bin Laden and a similar political investment.

The announcement of the US military plan to liberate Mosul based on avoiding a humanitarian disaster demonstrates the American interest is the political story in Washington and the impact on the presidential election. The message being sent is the role of the current administration in the liberation of Mosul to demonstrate the success of Obama’s second term, much like the elimination of Bin Laden was used to demonstrate the success of his first term.

In publicly announcing their plans, ISIS has responded by withdrawing from Mosul, making American success much more likely as the ISIS presence in Mosul has decreased significantly, making liberation a much simpler task. While IS fights have moved to Raqqa, those remaining in Mosul have taken to guerilla tactics with an increase in suicide bombings and surprise ambushes.

So while entering Mosul will not be so difficult, the next step will be the real challenge as they attempt to reestablish political stability, without challenging Iraqi authority. Furthermore, the real battle with ISIS is just being shifted to Raqqa, where most of the IS forces are preparing for a confrontation. A battle for Raqqa is likely to be far more complicated, not just because ISIS will remain and fight after having months to prepare, but also because of the lack of coordination between the Russian and international allies, which will only create more complexity and make success more difficult to achieve.

Meanwhile, Turkish supported troops have taken the village of Dabeq will crush the IS ideology on which the terrorist group justifies itself as the successor of the medieval caliphate and the prophecy that they will prevail in the final battle of Armageddon between the forces of good and evil.

The impending fall of Mosul will also trigger the search for the next successor to the caliphate.  We are likely to see the birth of new groups claiming to be the legitimate successor of the caliphate heritage. Moreover, the direct attack on Mosul could also scatter IS fighters, which will result on individual and uncoordinated terrorist attacks across the region and the world as followers of the IS doctrine have shown a capacity to operate globally.

Despite all of this, the symbolism of the fall of Mosul is very important, as it is the place from which La Baghdadi announced the birth of the caliphate. As such, it will be considered a big blow to the organization and its narrative. While there may be negative implications for IS, it will also have negative impacts for the rest of the world with a greater risk of terrorist attacks, while also setting up a difficult battle for Raqqa. Especially so if the US insists on not coordinating with other forces in the region to liberate the last remaining major city that IS holds.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

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Politics Author: - October 17, 2016

“خدعة” أوباما يحرر الموصل”.. و”الخلافة” تبحث عن “وريث”

 المتابعون لعملية تحرير الموصل  وفي معظمهم خلصوا للاستنتاج بان عملية تحرير الموصل في جوهرها هي عملية شكلية نظراً لانسحاب التنظيم و قياداته في اطار ممنهج في الشهور و الاسابيع الماضية من المدينة.

بالنسبة للولايات المتحدة، لا يمكن التغاضي عن قراءة اصرار الولايات المتحدة علي الفصل بين عمليتي الموصل و الرقة فخطوة  الفصل هذه يمكن قراءتها في اطار البعد البراغماتي الامريكي الذي يظهر في طبيعة ادارة الولايات المتحدة لملف مواجهة الارهاب.

منذ بداية وصول تنظيم داعش الي الموصل ارادت الولايات المتحدة ان تختص و تستأثر لنفسها عملية تحرير الموصل و الرقة و الظهور بصورة المخلص على غرار الطريقة الهوليودية التي قتل فيها اسامة بن لادن و شكل استثمار الحدث سياسياً في الولايات المتحدة انذاك. التضخيم الذي يسود وسائل الاعلام الامريكية حالياً  بخصوص دور الولايات المتحدة في تحرير الموصل يشير الى تضخيم الحدث عسكرياً لاستثماره سياسياً و تقديم الخدمة الاكبر للادارة المغادرة بأنها قامت بعمل حقيقي ضد تنظيم داعش كون المطلوب قولة ان أوياما في السنة الاخيرة من حقبته الأولى انهى بن لادن و في الثانية حرر الموصل.

ان تسويق تحرير الموصل من قبل الولايات المتحدة قد يواكبه منطقياً تأزيم للاوضاع في الرقة و تصعيب لعملية تحريرها في ظل اي خطة تشهد غياب الولايات المتحدة عن المشاركة الرئيسية بها.

كثير من التقارير الامنية  اشارت الي خروج معظم مقاتلي داعش من الموصل مؤخراً باتجاه الرقة مما يعني ان معركة الرقة تزداد صعوبة كلما زادت سهولة معركة تحرير الموصل.

اما على الصعيد الاخر فان سقوط دابق يعني منطقياً انهيار ايدولوجية تنظيم داعش، حيث ان التنظيم قام ببناء اسطورته على فكرة وراثته للخلافة المفترضة و انه المنتصر في اطارة المواجهة “الارماجدونية” اي المواجهة النهائية بين معسكري الحق و الباطل.

هذه الخسارة و سقوط الموصل يعني منطقياً ان مرحلة البحث عن وريث للخلافة الداعشية قد بدأ فعلاً و ان المرحلة القادمة ستشهد ولادة عدة تيارات و تنظيمات تدعي لنفسها وراثة الخلافة و استمرار نهجها.

كذلك فان هذه الضربات قد تدفع بلاشك افراد التنظيم و خلاياه المنتشرة للعمل بشكل فردي على صعيد واسع مما يعني ارتفاع في خطر زيادة العمليات الارهابية و اتساع رقعتها الجغرافية في اماكن متعددة.

ان رمزية سقوط الموصل كونها المكان الذي اعلن منه البغدادي خلافته يشكل ضربة كبيرة للتنظيم و عقيدته و اتباعه لكنه بلاشك قد ينقل المواجهة الي اماكن اخرى و يزيد من تعقيد عملية تحرير الرقة خصوصاً اذا ما كانت الولايات المتحدة و حلفاءها خارج هذا التنسيق و خارج حسابات الانتصارات الرمزية التي ارادتها الولايات المتحدة لنفسها في الموصل.

د.عامر السبايلة
amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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Politics Author: - October 16, 2016

Turkey the game changer

More than six years on the crisis in Syria, both the political and military solutions appear to be unattainable. However, the military situation on the ground is apparently not going completely against the Syrian Army and its Russian ally. Strategicall…

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Politics Author: - October 4, 2016

الأردن..عندما تغيب “الدولة” وتتصدر الشائعات

كثيرة هي الاحداث التي يشهدها المجتمع الاردني مؤخرا من الاعتداءات الارهابية وصولا الى تفاصيل السياسة الداخلية و بعض الاجراءات و القرارات وصولاً الى  حادثة اغتيال الكاتب ناهض حتر.

المتابع لمجريات الامور في الاردن يستشعر حالة من  غياب المرجعيات, فالدولة بدت غائبة في عدة محطات مهمة مؤخراً سواء على صعيد قيادة المشهد الاعلامي او ضبط ايقاعه على اقل تقدير , فالجميع بدأ يستشعر حالة الفوضى الاعلامية و الغياب اللافت لأي استراتيجية تواصل مع الداخل مما حول الدولة  للتعامل مع ردود الفعل لا مع اساس المعلومة.

الملفت للنظر مؤخراً هي القدرة التنظيمية لبعض الفئات على مواقع التواصل الاجتماعي بحيث يتحول الخبر الى شبه حقيقة بمجرد تداوله و يتحول معظم مستخدمي  مواقع التواصل الى ادوات تساعد في اعادة النشر ة التدوير.

  مؤخراً شهدت هذه الظاهرة ارتفاعاً ملحوظاً في مستوى الاداء, فعند تشكيل حكومة هاني الملقي الاولى ظهرت قائمة تشكيل مكتوبة بالطريقة الرسمية المعتادة و تم تسويقها على انها التشكيل الحكومي الجديد حتى ان بعض وكالات الاعلام قامت بإعادة نشر الوثيقة وتسويقها على انها خبر تشكيل الحكومة القادم من العاصمة عمان. الملفت للنظر في هذه الظاهرة هو ارتفاع المستوى التقني في صياغة الخبر بحيث يكون اقرب في صيغته الى النسخة الرسمية  .

و الاهم من ذلك التوقيت الي يتم اختياره لبث هذه الشائعات.

مثال واضح على نمو هذه  الظاهرة و تطورها هو الطريقة التي انتشرت بها لائحة التغييرات في مواقع الاجهزة الامنية و التي تبعت خبر احالة رئيس هيئة الاركان الاردني على التقاعد و التي اعطت هذه اللوائح المزعومة  نوعاً من المصداقية و قدرة هائلة على الانتشار السريع.

الملفت للنظر هو غياب القدرة الحكومية على مواجهة هذا الاسلوب من نشر الشائعات و خسارة الرواية الحكومية لموقع “المصدر الاساسي للمعلومة” و حصرها في خانة النفي و الدفاع عن النفس و حتى التعامل مع المعطيات الناتجة عن سيادة الشائعة.

المتتبع لمسار الامور يدرك اننا لا نتحدث فقط عن ظاهرة انتشار للإشاعة, بل نتحدث عن غياب واضح للدولة في واحد من اهم الملفات و خسارة الدولة لقدرتها على ضبط المناخ العام و انتشار المعلومة الصحيحة اما الاخطر فان هذه الظاهرة لا تقتصر على نشر الاشاعة و تشويش المناخ العام بل قد تتحول اداة للابتزاز و تشويه الحقائق و خلق مناخات سلبية باستمرار مما يعني ان اي توجه او طرح حكومي يمكن اسقاطه عبر التحشيد ضده و تشويهه شعبياً مما يجعله غير صالح للتطبيق.

غياب اي استراتيجية حكومية للتواصل مع الداخل قادرة على بناء قناة تواصل شفافة و مهنية يعني ان حالات اختطاف الراي العام ستستمر و قد تتطور سلباً و تأخذ اشكالا متعددة مستقبلا.

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