Things to talk about 2023-12-25 14:42:00


Last week, Jordan's northern borders faced a significant challenge as militias attempted to breach them, aiming to smuggle weapons and drugs into the country. The attack highlights the serious challenges Jordan faces in dealing with militia activities and securing its borders. The Jordan Armed Forces – Arab Army must remain vigilant and adept at addressing these evolving risks effectively. This alarming incident not only represents a direct threat to Jordan's security, but also raises broader concerns about the involvement of militias in creating hotspots and the potential of engaging the army in prolonged conflicts.

The weaponry these militias sought to smuggle into Jordan appears to be part of a larger plan to create instability and disrupt the country's secure borders. These attacks may have far-reaching consequences, involving the entire Western alliance in containing the risks of regional instability. 

From a security standpoint, this incident could mark the beginning of a broader series of attempts to create hotspots. Jordan is now confronting challenges that extend beyond typical criminal and terrorist activities in the southern part of Syria. This development could be linked to the regional implications of the Gaza war, transforming into more of a militia conflict rather than a full-scale war. The situation is complex and demands careful attention. 

The forming of a new coalition in the Red Sea, known as Operation Prosperity Guardian, responds to the instability caused by the Houthis in Yemen. Their attempts to hijack and attack ships have rendered the Red Sea insecure for international shipping, impacting the global economy and trade. The urgency to build this coalition is closely tied to the repercussions of the Gaza war, indicating that the entire region could soon face new challenges. 

Additionally, Israel's heightened focus on Hizbollah in Lebanon, beyond the Litani River, has escalated tensions on Israel's northern borders, resulting in more casualties and attacks. This delicate situation involves containing the war in Gaza while preparing for potential escalations elsewhere. 

Addressing the humanitarian crisis in Gaza remains of utmost importance, requiring practical solutions. Concentrated fires in the southern part of Gaza are hindering widespread aid efforts. Finding a resolution amid the ongoing war is increasingly challenging. While Israel prioritises the hostage issue, it remains determined not to let it impede its operations in Gaza. This determination may lead to swift actions targeting Hamas leadership and preparing for potential ground victories. 

On the Jordanian front, a strategic approach is necessary to mitigate internal risks, targeting local dealers and facilitators involved in smuggling. This sends a clear message that Jordan's national security is non-negotiable, with severe consequences for those threatening it. This must be combined with an intelligence strategy that anticipates continuous risks arising from regional developments, forming part of a broader, coordinated strategy with Jordan's allies, akin to the Global Coalition against Daesh, where Jordan played a pivotal role.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh