Category Archives: Politics

Politics Author: - January 22, 2017

Reshuffling governments a sign of political instability

Jordan is well known for changes and reshuffles at the highest levels of government. While the previous Prime Minister Abdullah Ensour held office for more than three years, he had over 70 ministers on his team during that time. The current Prime Minister Hani Al-Mulki is continuing that legacy of instability announcing his second reshuffle after less than seven months in office.

Many believe that the main challenge for Jordan is economic reforms to address the serious issues in the economy, and very little has been achieved on this. Jordan also faces very serious problems with radicalization, general security and coordination of the bureaucracy. Jordan also faces the challenge of restoring relations with neighboring countries including Syria and Iraq, as well as reconnecting with regional players such as Iran and Turkey. Without a clear strategy and professional operators to implement, these issues will never be addressed.

The failure to deliver concrete progress in addressing the economy or deradicalization is in part driven by the lack of stability in key ministries such as the Ministry of Culture, Ministry of Higher Education and the Ministry of Youth. Without stability or any progress in tackling the key issues, this government is likely to be another that treads water and achieves nothing.

Many observers believe that Mulki, much like many of his predecessors, is not a leader or a team player. Any reshuffle must be based on national interests with a strategic vision to address the key issues that are facing the country.

Whatever the real reasons behind the reshuffle, this kind of power politics will always have a negative impact on both citizens and state. It adds tension to the already difficult political climate and gives the impression that government is completely outdated and unable to address the concerns of the Jordanian public.

What Jordan needs today is a government that can bring tangible changes to the lives of the people at all levels of service delivery, economic reform and to communicate the policies and achievements. The risks of such a political attitude is the disillusionment of Jordanians who are more likely to consider not only that change is impossible but also that attempts to change are futile.

The most serious problem is the continuous erosion of confidence that current or future governments are capable of addressing internal or regional challenges.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem that this reshuffle has changed anything as far as government policy is concerned. It is unlikely to last if the economic situation does not change and the impacts of regional terrorism continue to escalate. The most likely outcome is ongoing change and instability with no real outcomes for the people or the country.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

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Politics Author: - January 15, 2017

Are we ready for the new waves of Terrorism?

New regional waves of terrorism are targeting different countries in the region, mostly Turkey. After the call of the leader of ISIS ‘Al Baghdadi’ to attack Turkey, it is obvious that Turkey is becoming the chief target of the terrorist organization. The night club operation in Turkey represents new challenges in encountering terrorism; the ability of the terrorist to eliminate the security personnel even the police;  carry-out the operation, and escape the scene in a new style shows that this operation can be viewed as an “intelligence operation”. This recent methodology annotates an escalation in the level of sophistication of ISIS’s “traditional operations” but it also shows that the organization is penetrating the security system and social textile of Turkey; as it would be impossible for any terrorist to execute such an operation, escape the scene and hide within the same country without back-up and support from local protagonists.

Nonetheless, it is important to notice that the regression of ISIS’s organization in Syria and Iraq, along with the recent shifts following the battle of Aleppo causes not just Turkey, but also Jordan to face series of challenges and dangers.

First, the relocation of fighters from one front to other fronts intensifies the possibilities of individual operations and increases the organization’s desire to create new hot spots.

Second, Jordan’s most critical challenge is the rout of the battles in Syria after Aleppo, in which its compass might point towards the Syrian Southern border, placing increasing pressure on the Jordanian border and raising the danger ratio of repeated attacks. In this case, repeated attempts that aim at striking the national security and creating an atmosphere of internal disputes will take place; the organization’s subjects seek to exploit and employ it to the best of their interests.

Third, one of the prominent dangers of the next phase is characterized by the continuous regeneration of fighter cells and the activation of dormant cells that have been operating mutely during the past years, and have been able to build networks of allies in the areas in which they are located.

Fourth, the arrival of these cells to the “individual working” phase; they will be isolated due to the fall of the central order of the organization. These cells might be seeking to apply individual actions that depend on the surprise element, and usually aim at causing the most damage with minimal costs. This means uncomplicated operations such as; shooting at a security officer, or striking a crowded area of civilians using primitive techniques.

The increasing pressure on the fighters in Syria, and the Turkish borders being closed after Erdogan’s political shift might push the fighters into targeting new areas and finding exit routes from which they can use in order to escape this state of pressure.

Thus, the challenges Jordan is facing are enormous. The alteration from having to deal with direct threats means that Jordan has moved into the open and direct confrontation stage with these organizations. That is why Jordan has to change the framework and the system in which it deals with these organizations. The graphic organizer of recent assaults that targeted Jordan indicates obvious increase in the configuration of the operations, their method and objectives but still the target, so far, is the security system not the civilians. This means that they should be dealt with in a strictly firm manner and in a method that foresees the coming confrontations in order to avoid any further dangerous and aggressive future threats. 

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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Politics Author: - January 8, 2017

Advanced ISIS Strategy Looming New Threats



The remarkable shift in the method of the terrorist operation carried-out by ISIS in Istanbul, especially from the technical and tactical perspective, indicates ISIS’s shift in adopting a more complicated advanced approach, which could be classified as one of the intelligence operation in the form and the implementation process; particularly, in the assailant’s ability to carry – out the attack during vital timing: “New Year’s Eve celebrations” in spite of the warnings that had been released and the security measures that had been assumed in order to confront such danger. The most dangerous aspect, which marks an unprecedented occurrence, is that the attacker did not pursue a previous approach in his attack like blasting himself, or remaining on sight fighting until killed. On the contrary, he was able to flee the scene and go into hiding to this day.     
This data presented opens the door wide open for questions, specifically regarding the security challenges facing and will face Turkey, as well as other countries in the future. Particularly since the hypothesis of implementing an operation of this magnitude, in a well-known tourist attraction despite taking all security measures, indicates a highly penetrative ability of both security and community system. The ability of a person to carry-out such an operation is a sign that significantly indicates the presence of catalysts and internal incubators working to facilitate all phases of the operation: access, mission accomplished by shooting down the target, withdrawal and disappearance.      

The strike facing Turkey today occurs at a time when Turkey is reformulating its political positions; embarking on an era of transformations that initially started to appear by ending the battle of Aleppo and moving into the truce phase in Syria, and Turkey’s role in bringing many parties to the negotiation table.   

The successive security strikes also occur at a time when Turkey’s security system is going through a restructuring phase, after the futile military coup attempt, intensifying the complexity of Turkey’s mission and its ability to counter terrorism; apart from the political challenges and negative climates formed by the Turkish policy in recent years, which resulted in increased number of enemies and fewer friends and allies.

Turkey has been trying very hard to recover from the dearth of tourism that started with the Russian fighter Jet crash and the absence of Russian tourist presence, as well as the destructive fallouts due to a number of terrorist attacks targeting European tourists, and then the bombing of Istanbul’s airport. All these were situations reinforcing a hiatus in tourism, and then came the latest attacks on Istanbul as a real blow to the Turkish economy and tourism, which have been drained dramatically lately. These developments should affect large Turkish strategic projects as well, especially in the transportation sector and airports’ projects that have been seeking to turn Turkey into the largest hub in Europe. The issue of lack of security that is being rooted now will create a new reality of isolation difficult to overcome in the future; the security that has been being built for many long years could be lost in a matter of few months, especially when civilians are the main targets of terrorist attacks; not just the security forces.

The security reading regarding the attack on Istanbul indicates a remarkable shift in the nature of the operations implemented by the organization of ISIS, which still rotates around similar traditional operations, but that incorporates far more complicated planning and technical dimension. Accordingly, the world might be facing more intricate and sophisticated operations in the imminent future.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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Politics Author: - January 2, 2017

قراءة في عملية اسطنبول: نهج داعشي جديد و تهديدات جديدة قادمة

التحول اللافت في شكل العملية الارهابية التي نفذها داعش في اسطنبول خصوصاً من الجانب التقني و التكتيتي يشير الى انتقال تنظيم داعش لتبني اسلوب متقدم أكثر تعقيدا و يمكن تصنيفها على انها احدى نماذج العمليات الاستخبارية في شكل و اداء العملية، خصوصاً في قدرة منفذ العملية على تنفيذ العملية في توقيت مهم “احتفالية راس السنة” بالرغم من التحذيرات التي تم اطلاقها و من الاجراءات الامنية التي تم اتخاذها لمواجهة هذا الخطر. اما النقطة الاخطر و التي تشكل سابقة جديدة هي ان منفذ العملية لم ينتهج نهجاً سابقاً كتفجير نفسه او القتال في المكان حتى تتم تصفيته بل استطاع الانسحاب و التواري عن الانظار الى اليوم.

هذه المعطيات تفتح باب الاسئلة على مصراعيه، بالتحديد حول التحديات الامنية التي تواجه و ستواجه تركيا و دول أخرى مستقبلاً. خصوصاً ان فرضية تنفيذ عملية بهذا الحجم في مكان سياحي معروف بالرغم من اتخاذ كافة الاجراءات الامنية يشير الى قدرة اختراق عالية سواء للمنظومة الامنية او المجتمعية. ان قدرة شخص على تنفيذ مثل هذه العملية لابد ان تشير الى وجود عوامل مساعدة و حواضن داخلية تعمل على تسهيل كافة مراحل العملية: الوصول و تنفيذ المهمة باسقاط الهدف و الانسحاب و الاختفاء.

الضربة التي توجه الى تركيا اليوم تأتي في وقت تعيد تركيا فيه صياغة مواقفها السياسية و تبدأ معه عهداً من التحولات ظهرت بوادرها بانهاء معركة حلب و الانتقال الى مرحلة الهدنة في سوريا و الدور التركي عن جلب كافة الفصائل الى طاولة الحوار.

الضربات الامنية المتوالية تأتي أيضاً في فترة تمر فيها المنظومة الامنية التركية بمرحلة اعادة الصياغة و الترتيب بعد عملية الانقلاب الفاشل و التي تزيد من مهمة و قدرة مواجهة الارهاب صعوبةً و تعقيداً، عداك عن الصراع السياسي و المناخات السلبية التي شكلتها السياسة التركية في السنوات الاخيرة بحيث زاد عدد الاعداء و قل عدد الاصدقاء و الحلفاء.

تركيا التي كانت تحاول جاهدة ان تتعافى من مسألة انقطاع السياحة التي بدأت مع سقوط الطائرة الروسية و انقطاع الوجود السياحي الروسي، و النتائج السلبية لعدد من الهجمات الارهابية التي استهدفت سياحاً اوروبيين و من ثم تفجير مطار اسطنبول، كلها محطات عززت مسألة انقطاع السياحة لتأتي هجمات اسطنبول الاخيرة لتوجه ضربة حقيقية للسياحة و الاقتصاد التركي المستنزف مؤخراً بشكل كبير. هذه التطورات لابد ان تؤثر ايضاً على مشاريع استراتيجية تركية كبيرة خصوصاً في قطاع المواصلات و المطارات و التي كانت تسعى لتحويل تركيا الى نقطة الجذب الاكبر في اوروبا ذلك ان مسألة غياب الامن التي يتم تجذيرها الان ستخلق واقع جديد من العزلة يصعب تجاوزها مستقبلاً، فالامن الذي يتم بناءه عبر سنين طويلة يمكن خسارته في شهور قليلة خصوصاً عندما يتحول المدنيون -و ليس فقط الاجهزة الامنية- الى الهدف الرئيسي للعمليات الارهابية.

القراءة الامنية لعملية اسطنبول تشير الى تحول لافت في طبيعة العمليات التي ينفذها تنظيم داعش و التي مازالت تدور في فلك العمليات التقليدية لكن ببعد تقني اكثر تعقيداً و تخطيطاً، مما يعني ان العالم قد يكون على موعد مع عمليات اكثر تعقيداً و تطوراً في الايام القادمة.   

د.عامر السبايلة

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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Politics Author: - December 24, 2016

Jordan open confrontation with terrorism


The degenerating presence of ISIS on the Syrian and Iraqi soil forces the group to adopt a new strategy that aims to compensate its losses, offers the impression that it still retains its strength, and that it is still able to hit everywhere. Moreover, it is vital for the group to seek creating new climates that form attraction points for its members departing Syria and Iraq.  

The logical interpretation of the incidents in the city of Karak indicates the possibility of these operations being linked to a central decision, which means that the cell might not be an individual one. It might be a cell that works according to group’s methodology and strategy.


This is what the shape of the operation obviously shows, as well as the data and logistics that have been revealed. The location of the operation could also confirm this hypothesis. For instance, if we agreed that the security forces are the primary targets of this operation this explains the group’s desire to strike more than one bird with one stone by attacking the security forces as well as striking the tourist attraction. This is usually what happens in order to achieve many objectives such as:


1-   A moral blow to the state security system by displaying its inability to protect its tourist attractions.

2-   Taking advantage of the rapid speed in which news spreads through media in case of an assault on a historical landmark and tourist attraction.

3-   The possibility of foreign tourists being present in these areas, which gives the assault a global dimension.  

4-   These assaults also aim at inflicting economic blow on the country that is dependent on tourism as its means of income. It also creates atmosphere of angry citizens of the area, who are harmed by the dearth of tourism, or the poor economic situation that accompanies such circumstances so that they can exploit it later on in the future.


     Henceforth, the strategy that entails striking tourist areas is found to be the most effective and successful policy for many groups today.
The regression of ISIS’s organization in Syria and Iraq, along with the recent shifts following the battle of Aleppo causes Jordan to face series of challenges and dangers:

First, the relocation of fighters from one front to other fronts intensifies the possibilities of individual operations and increases the organization’s desire to create new hot spots.

Second, Jordan’s most critical challenge is the path of the battles in Syria after Aleppo, in which its compass might point towards the Syrian Southern border, placing increasing pressure on the Jordanian border and raising the danger ratio of repeated attacks. In this case, repeated attempts that aim at striking the national security and creating an atmosphere of internal disputes will take place; the 
organization’s subjects seek to exploit and employ it to the best of their interests.
 

Third, one of the prominent dangers of the next phase is characterized by the continuous regeneration of fighter cells and the activation of dormant cells that have been operating silently during the past years, and have been able to build networks of allies in the areas in which they are located.

Fourth, the arrival of these cells to the “individual working” phase; they will be isolated since the fall of the central order of the organization. These cells might be seeking to apply individual actions that depend on the surprise element, and usually aim at causing the most damage with minimal costs. This means uncomplicated operations such as; shooting at a security officer, or striking a crowded area of civilians using primitive techniques.


The increasing pressure on the fighters in Syria, and the Turkish borders being closed might push the fighters into targeting new areas and finding exit routes from which they can use in order to escape this state of pressure.


Thus, the challenges Jordan is facing are enormous. The alteration from having to deal with direct threats means that Jordan has moved into the open and direct confrontation stage with these organizations. That is why Jordan has to change the framework and the system in which it deals with these organizations. The graphic organizer of recent assaults that targeted Jordan indicates obvious increase in the configuration of the operations, their method and objectives. This means that they should be dealt with in a strictly firm way and in a way that foresees the coming confrontations in order to avoid any further dangerous and aggressive future threats. 

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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Politics Author: - December 21, 2016

الاردن : الانتقال الى مرحلة المواجهة المفتوحة مع الارهاب

لا يمكن تقديم اي قراءة امنية للاحداث الارهابية الاخيرة في مدينة الكرك بعيداً عن سياق الحوادث السابقة التي شهدها الاردن مؤخراً. كذلك لا يمكن استثناء البعد الاقليمي و انعكاساته على ما يجري اليوم على الساحة الاردنية، من الاوضاع العسكرية في سوريا و العراق الى التحولات السياسية في مواقف بعض الدول.


ان انحسار تواجد تنظيم داعش على الارض السورية و العراقية يدفع –بلاشك- بالتنظيم لانتهاج استراتيجية جديدة تعمل على تعويض الخسائر و تعطي الانطباع بأن التنظيم  يحتفظ بقوته و مازال قادراً على الضرب في كل مكان. بالتزامن مع ذلك، لابد ان يسعى التنظيم لخلق مناخات جديدة تشكل نقطة جذب لعناصره الخارجة من سوريا و العراق.


القراءة المنطقية لاحداث الكرك تشير الى احتمالية ارتباط هذه العملية بقرار مركزي، اي ان الخلية من الممكن الا تكون خلية فردية بل خلية تعمل وفقاً لمنهجية و استراتيجية التنظيم، هذا ما توضحه شكل العملية و حيثياتها و ما تم الكشف عنه من معطيات و لوجستيات. مكان العملية يمكن ان يؤكد هذه النظرية أيضاً، فلو اتفقنا ان قوات الامن هي المستهدف الرئيسي من هذه العملية الا انها توضح رغبة التنظيم بضرب أكثر من عصفور بحجر واحد، اي ضرب اجهزة الامن و  ضرب الاماكن السياحية ايضاً، وذلك عادة ما يتم لتحقيق عدة أهداف اهمها :


١ الضربة المعنوية للاجهزة الامنية و الدولة باظهار عدم قدرتها على حماية اماكنها السياحية.


٢ استغلال سرعة انتشار الخبر في وسائل الاعلام في حال تم الاعتداء على معلم تاريخي و سياحي.


٣ احتمال تواجد السياح الاجانب في هذه الاماكن مما يعطي الاعتداء بعداً عالمياً.


٤ توجه هذه الاعتداءات ضربة اقتصادية ايضاً للدولة المستهدفة المعتمدة في اقتصاداتها على الدخل القادم من السياحة و تخلق مناخات غاضبة من ابناء المنطقة المتضررين من انقطاع السياحة او من الاوضاع الاقتصادية السيئة التي تواكب مثل هذه الظروف بحيث يمكن استغلالها مستقبلاً.


 لهذا فان استراتيجية ضرب الاماكن السياحية هي استراتيجية تجد التنظيمات فيها اليوم الاستراتيجية الاكثر فعاليةً و نجاحاً.

ان انحسار تنظيم داعش في سوريا و العراق و التحولات الاخيرة بعد معركة حلب تضع الاردن في مواجهة سلسلة من التحديات و الاخطار:


 اولاً: انتقال المقاتلين من هذه الجبهات باتجاه جبهات أخرى مما يعني ارتفاع احتماليات تنفيذ عمليات فردية  و ازدياد الرغبة لدى التنظيم بخلق نقاط ساخنة جديدة.


ثانياً: التحدي الاهم للاردن هو مسار المعارك في سوريا بعد حلب و الذي قد تشير بوصلته الى الجبهة الجنوبية لسوريا مما يضع ضغطاً متزايداً على الحدود الاردنية و يرفع منسوب خطر استهدافها المتكرر. في هذه الحالة تتكرر عادة محاولات ضرب السلم الاهلي و خلق مناخات للنزاعات الداخلية يسعى عناصر التنظيم لاستغلالها و توظيفها لمصلحتهم.


ثالثاً: من الاخطار البارزة في المرحلة القادمة تمثله عملية “التفريخ” المستمر للخلايا المقاتلة و تفعيل الخلايا النائمة التي كانت تعمل بصمت على مدار السنوات الماضية و استطاعت ان تبني شبكات من المتعاونين معها في المناطق التي تتواجد بها.


رابعاً: وصول هذه الخلايا الى مرحلة العمل الفردي، اي ان تصبح بلا رأس نظراً لتعذر تطبيق النظام المركزي و انتظار تلقي الاوامر يمكن ان تسعى هذه الخلايا للتحرك الفردي و الذي يعتمد على عامل المفاجئة و عادة ما يهدف الى الحاق اكبر ضرر ممكن بأقل التكاليف اي عمليات غير معقدة، كاطلاق الرصاص على رجال الامن او ضرب التجمعات المدنية باساليب بدائية.


ان زيادة الضغط على المقاتلين في سوريا و اغلاق الحدود التركية قد يدفع بهؤلاء للسعي لاستهداف اماكن جديدة و البحث عن خاصرة رخوة يمكن استغلالها للهروب من حالة الضغط هذه.


لهذا فان التحديات امام الاردن هي تحديات كبيرة فالانتقال للتعاطي مع التهديدات المباشرة يعني ان الاردن انتقل الى مرحلة المواجهة المفتوحة و المباشرة مع هذه التنظيمات، لهذا فان الاردن مضطر لتغيير نمط و شكل التعامل مع هذه التنظيمات. فالمنحنى البياني للعمليات التي استهدفت الاردن تشير الى تصاعد واضح في نمط العمليات و شكلها و اهدافها مما يعني ضرورة التعامل معها بحزم شديد و باسلوب نوعي يستبق المواجهات القادمة لتفادي اي تهديدات مستقبلية أكثر خطورةً و عنفاً.


د.عامر السبايلة

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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Politics Author: - December 18, 2016

After Aleppo’s battle Jordan national security is the priority

The battle of Aleppo is one of the most important developments to see an end to the Syrian crisis, even though it won’t be the last battle. The Syrian regime’s win in Aleppo might, logically, push the fight against the terrorists to the south.

According to the experts the battle of Aleppo is a major step for the Syrian regime in regaining control of the country. In the absence of a clear vision from America, Russia with its allies have seized the moment to recapture Aleppo. Russia made a deal with Turkey to limit its involvement and support for the rebels in Aleppo. With the Turkish borders closed, the advantage shifted.

Recapturing Aleppo doesn’t give the Syrian Army full control over Syrian territory but it refocuses the conflict into a single dimension, fighting terrorism. A Trump White House will no doubt support this, as the President-elect has frequently expressed that his priority in Syria is to fight terrorism, and not political change. With the potential for new leaders in France and other European countries later next year, we may see more support for a similarly single-minded focus in Syria.

The battle of Aleppo will push the fight down to the south of the country. While Turkey was engaged in the north due to the proximity to its borders, Jordan may be forced to take a similar level of engagement as the fight pushes into the south. The impacts that this battle on the Jordanian borders will certainly decide level of the Jordanian engagement in such battle.

Jordan is closely monitoring the developments on that front. On military level, the Jordanian army is -at the same time- applying intensive border surveillance activities and setting the rules of engagement for any possible attack on Jordanian borders.

Jordan faces many challenges and threats with a lot of border territory with ISIS controlled areas in the Jordan-Syria-Iraq triangle. During the battle in Mosul there were reports of ISIS fighters close to the Jordanian border and any attempt to recapture Palmyra by ISIS will also put pressure on Jordan. Moreover, the recapturing of the city of Palmyra by ISIS would put more pressure on Jordan. Especially on the area of Iraqi, Syrian Jordanian shared borders.

The challenges for Jordan are only likely to increase and become more difficult to address. They will require a new way of dealing with threats, not just militarily and logistically but also politically. Jordan needs strong relationships with the Iraqi and Syrian counterparts as well as the capacity to build strong alliances with countries that can help Jordan in taking actions on the ground to confront these threats.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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Politics Author: - December 12, 2016

Israel and Hizbollah — what does the future have in store?

Once again in the last weeks we have seen reports of Israeli jet fighters attacking a Hezbollah convoy west of Damascus. These ongoing attacks of Hezbollah fighters, leaders and convoys are part of an escalation between Israel and Hezbollah that could soon lead to open confrontation. There are three factors that encourage Israel to seriously consider such a move.

The first is related to the presence of Hezbollah in Syria, and its proximity to the Golan Heights. According to many experts Hezbollah’s financial and human resources were seriously drained and it’s popularity on the decline within Lebanon and abroad. This could be an opportunity for Israel to attack Hezbollah directly after the war in Syria.

The second factor that would be of concern to Israel is the experience that Hezbollah’s fighters have gained in Syria. Cooperation with various militias and the development of new fighting techniques and tactics from having a wide network inside Syria and across the region could see Hezbollah implement them against Israel as their attention turns back to their traditional foe.

The third factor relates to the use of new technology and techniques in spying that Hezbollah has been using. There have been multiple incidents of drones crossing into Israeli air space and evading Israeli defenses taking pictures and collecting intelligence on Israeli troops and installations. This is a new threat to Israel and would be of great concern.

With these indicators suggesting an increasing probability of a confrontation, it begs the question as to what Hezbollah has prepared. We know that Hezbollah has new technology and techniques, but perhaps they are also thinking that offense is the best form of defense. Further, they may consider that surprise would be to their advantage, which means we could see a confrontation on Israeli soil.

Hezbollah would also be preparing itself for a solution to the crisis in Syria where they are no longer able to use it as a logistic, political and financial base, as they have in the past. The same would also apply to Iran, which is working to keep deals with the international community.

The result of this is that Hezbollah will not have the same level of backing as it has in the past. We are seeing a longer term change of Hezbollah’s political strategy as they have managed to facilitate the deal that saw their ally General Michael Aoun become the president of Lebanon, which may also see them address their illegal status of being a state within a state.

Despite all of these indicators, the key factor of whether we see a confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel or a regional settlement is likely to be determined by the new protagonist in the region, in Russia.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

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