17/8/2025

There is a growing conviction among many observers of the regional scene that a second round of confrontation between Israel and Iran is fast approaching. This explains Tehran’s push to pre-empt such a clash by activating what remains of its leverage in the region.

In this context, Iranian moves appear to be part of a pre-emptive strategy aimed at disrupting any Israeli step toward a direct strike. Within this framework comes Ali Larijani’s visit to Lebanon and the subsequent escalatory statements by Hezbollah, alongside tensions on the Iraqi front, where factions of the Popular Mobilization Forces refuse to give up their weapons. Added to this is the ongoing activity on the Yemeni front, as well as Iran’s growing focus on southern Syria — a clear attempt to establish a foothold near the Israeli border in order to increase the security threat to Tel Aviv.

These actions reflect Tehran’s attempt to reactivate what remains of its capabilities across multiple fronts, delaying any effort to resolve the situation in Israel’s favor and thereby preventing it from eliminating Iranian influence, in line with the principle of “engagement to prevent isolation.” This points to an Iranian conviction that Israel’s return to direct confrontation is inevitable.

Although Israel still bets on the element of surprise through complex intelligence operations, the shape of the coming clash remains difficult to predict — whether it will rely on precise, high-impact strikes capable of preventing or containing any significant Iranian retaliation. What stands out, however, is that Israeli rhetoric has recently been directed straight at the Iranian public, as Netanyahu, in a recent speech, delved into the details of Iranians’ daily lives and their grievances — a clear indication of preparations aimed at Iran’s domestic sphere.

Under these circumstances, Iran’s current escalation appears logical, particularly as the fronts remain unresolved. Its allies — despite the curbing of their regional capabilities — are working to keep alive the notion of a multi-front threat to force Israel to reconsider its calculations. A scaled-down version of the “Unity of Fronts” strategy seems to remain in place, keeping the possibility of targeting Israel from multiple directions alive.

In this context, Tehran feels compelled to move forward, sending the message that the threat is far from over, and that the strategic edge Israel achieved after dismantling Hamas’s capabilities, weakening Hezbollah, striking the Syrian regime, and delivering direct blows to Iran, is not necessarily permanent. This advantage, Tehran believes, can be challenged — and Israel can once again be preoccupied on several front and through various methods.

Parallel to Iran’s escalation, Israel is advancing controversial moves on the international stage — including the construction of settlements in the “E1” area, which would effectively split the northern and southern parts of the West Bank, eliminating any possibility of a Palestinian state. This comes as a counter-reaction to the growing international discourse about recognizing a Palestinian state. At the same time, the possibility of renewed direct war in Lebanon looms, amid the escalating rhetoric of Hezbollah and warnings by its Secretary-General of a potential civil war.

This tense climate could impact several fronts, with Lebanon emerging as a primary arena, while Syria faces its own dangerous convulsions — particularly in the south, where escalation signals are visible amid the presence of multiple actors, including terrorist groups. In northern Syria, clashes between Kurdish forces and the Syrian government are intensifying, further deepening instability.

For Jordan, the geography adjacent to these flashpoints represents a direct challenge to national security. The widening circle of regional chaos could pose the kingdom’s most serious threat, making it imperative to treat the upcoming wave of escalation as a real danger. This demands internal measures to strengthen the resilience of the domestic front and ensure maximum readiness to deal with the fallout of shifting regional dynamics and policies.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh